MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #160A (Special Update)
******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY OCTOBER 25 2020 11:30 PM EDT...
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Zeta as of 0310Z:
Zeta already reaching strong tropical storm strength while becoming well organized...chances for hurricane force conditions in Quintana Roo in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are very high and preparations for such conditions should be completed within the next 24 hours. This special update is to increase my intensity forecast for Zeta as outlined below. I have also nudged my forecast track eastward as Zeta has been stalled instead of moving northwest...so by the time the incoming front from the central US intersects Zeta and bends the track northeast Zeta will more likely be further east. Weakening is still shown after 48 hours as the upper trough of the incoming frontal system will be likely imparting increasing wind shear. As Zeta system merges with the front and becomes supported by the eastern divergence zone of the upper trough...it will transition into a non-tropical remnant frontal cyclone as it makes landfall along the eastern US Gulf coast. Even as it becomes less tropical...Zeta will have potential for high winds and coastal storm surge as it will only slowly weaken due to the support of the upper trough.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Oct 26)...60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Caribbean Sea at 18.1N-83.8W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 27)...80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the northwestern Caribbean Sea at 19.5N-85.5W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 28)...100 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the southern Gulf of Mexico at 22.5N-89.5W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 29)...75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico at 27N-89.5W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 30)...40 mph maximum sustained wind frontal cyclone centered over northeastern Georgia at 33.5N-83.5W