MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #190A (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY NOVEMBER 17 2019 10:30 PM EDT...
The following is a special update on the surface trough of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic featuring squalls of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm activity has become stronger and better organized as indicated in the above colorized infrared satellite image...indicating a higher likelihood the disturbance will produce enough thunderstorm latent heat release to diminish the cold core upper trough in the region that has been shearing the disturbance. Therefore I am raising my odds of tropical cyclone formation to catch up to the most recent National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook...and plan to raise my odds further by tomorrow morning and perhaps begin a tropical cyclone formation forecast by my next full update tomorrow afternoon if these trends continue.
IOH 12 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 18)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 19N-57.5W)
IOH 36 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 19)...40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 23N-61W)
IOH 60 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 20)...50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 26.5N-61W)
IOH 84 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 21)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (absorbed by cold front near 31N-55W)