MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #188
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...FRIDAY NOVEMBER 15 2019 2:50 PM EDT...
A frontal upper trough moving across the western Atlantic has merged with a previous upper trough in the central tropical Atlantic...and the merged upper trough is forecast to amplify further as adjacent amplification of Caribbean upper ridging occurs from the warm sector of a strengthening frontal low pressure currently forming over the southeastern US coast. The increasingly stronger eastern upper divergence zone of the amplifying merged upper trough will likely result in the increase in shower and thunderstorm bands in the central tropical Atlantic from current levels...and perhaps the consolidation of a surface low pressure. However the NAVGEM model which had been previously forecasting tropical cyclone formation in this region is no longer showing this...albeit the Euro (ECMWF) model has switched back to showing the formation of a surface low after no longer showing a surface low as of yesterday. The latest GFS model run suggests the Caribbean upper ridging could amplify northeastward enough to drive the current eastern Atlantic upper trough southwestward and place any central tropical Atlantic low pressure that forms within the unfavorable western convergence zone of that trough. Therefore I am not issuing any outlooks on tropical cyclone formation in the central tropical Atlantic at the present time.