MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #185
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 12 2019 5:01 PM EDT...
The large area of showers and thunderstorms that was in the central tropical Atlantic has shifted eastward toward the eastern tropical Atlantic in the last 24 hours as the supporting central Atlantic upper trough has shifted eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. However activity in the central tropical Atlantic is expected to redevelop as a portion of the shortwave upper trough currently moving across the western Atlantic amplifies and also enters the central tropical Atlantic due to adjacent amplification of upper ridging in the Caribbean region to be caused by warm air advection ahead of the frontal system currently over the eastern US coast. This pattern is expected to continue even into next week as the upper trough associated with the eastern US coastal front is also forecast to amplify and dig into the central tropical Atlantic under similar circumstances. The NAVGEM...CMC...Euro...and GFS models are now in agreement that this persistent pattern could develop a surface low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic perhaps capable of tropical development in the 6 to 7 day timeframe. If this model convergence continues over the next day or so...I will be introducing the central tropical Atlantic as an area of interest for tropical cyclone development...issuing an outlook that contains probabilities for tropical cyclone formation.