*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY NOVEMBER 11 2019 2:59 PM EDT...
A rather large area of showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic continues with the support of the eastern divergence zone of an upper trough persisting in the region...with the sharpness of this trough caused by adjacent upper ridging to the north that is bolstered by warm air ahead of a western Atlantic frontal system. Over the next 72 hours this pattern is expected to persist while a portion of the shortwave upper trough currently moving across the western Atlantic amplifies and also enters the central tropical Atlantic due to adjacent amplification of upper ridging in the Caribbean region caused by warm air advection ahead of the frontal system currently over the central United States. The NAVGEM computer model continues to insist on tropical cyclone formation from the central tropical Atlantic thunderstorm activity while the other models do not show such a solution. Development here will depend on how much the approaching western Atlantic upper shortwave troughs amplifies as a more amplified trough would reduce wind shear and potentially allow for development. Given that the NAVGEM is not usually a reliable model for tropical development...I am not considering this as an area of interest for tropical development at this time.
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