*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY NOVEMBER 10 2019 7:07 PM EDT...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic are redeveloping as a shortwave upper trough moving into the region from the west has become amplified due to adjacent amplification of upper ridging to the north caused by warm air advection ahead of a western Atlantic frontal system...with the divergence zone on the east side of the amplified shortwave upper trough supporting the thunderstorms. Over the next few days this pattern is expected to persist while a portion of the shortwave upper trough currently emerging into the Atlantic from the eastern United States amplifies and also enters the central tropical Atlantic due to adjacent amplification of upper ridging in the Caribbean region due to warm air advection ahead of the frontal system currently over the central United States. The NAVGEM computer model over the last couple of days suggests this pattern could support the development of a tropical cyclone in the central tropical Atlantic...and the latest 1800Z GFS model run is showing a surface tropical low pressure emerging in this activity. Therefore will continue to watch the central tropical Atlantic over the next few days.
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