MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #179
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 6 2019 4:48 PM EDT...
Along the surface Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the southern Caribbean Sea just east of Nicaragua...an area of somewhat organized thunderstorms with some cyclonic turning has developed today with the support of anticyclonic upper outflow building in the wake of weakening northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity that has been present since late October. None of the latest computer model runs show tropical development occurring here. An examination of the GFS model upper-level winds suggests that in the next 24 hours upper-level winds in the southern Caribbean Sea will become less favorable for thunderstorm activity as the shortwave upper trough currently approaching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States will merge with the lingering northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity...with the southern Caribbean beginning to fall in the suppressive western convergence zone of the merged upper trough. Therefore tropical development here appears unlikely.