MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #141A (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 28 2019 10:28 PM EDT...
The National Hurricane Center has established based on satellite data that Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph maximum sustained winds. I do not recall a category 5 hurricane so far east in the Atlantic basin...and it would not surprise me that this is the furthest east category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic! This is my special update to increase my intensity forecast given these recent developments. Conditions have been favorable for strengthening today as the hurricane's latent heat release split the central Atlantic upper trough into half...with the hurricane finding a spot of lower shear in between the split while the split halves themselves have aided the hurricane's upper outflow. Another upper trough which recently ejected from eastern Canada and the northwest Atlantic will soon approach Lorenzo...so I currently forecast that some light shear may weaken the hurricane slightly in the next day or so. But I still keep Lorenzo a formidable category 4 through 1200Z September 30 as the latent heat release and strong outflow of the hurricane will likely cut-off a portion of the upper trough and keep it at bay to the west...thus minimizing the upper trough's effects. Lorenzo is still expected to bring damaging winds to the Azores by Tuesday evening...and with these recent developments the chances that this could be one of the strongest storms in the Azores history appear to be increasing. I recommend interests here begin preparations for damaging winds and large coastal sea swells tomorrow.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Sep 29)...160 mph maximum sustained major hurricane centered at 24.1N-45W
IOH 12 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 29)...150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 27N-43.5W
IOH 36 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 30)...140 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 31N-42W
IOH 60 Hr Forecast (1200Z Oct 1)...110 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane transitioning to non-tropical centered southwest of the Azores at 35N-37.5W
IOH 84 Hr Forecast (1200Z Oct 2)...100 mph maximum sustained wind non-tropical remnant gale centered north of the Azores at 46.5N-26W