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  • See the latest birdseye view post published below for more information regarding the following and on tropical activity elsewhere in the Atlantic basin.

  • Ophelia's remnant frontal low has drifted southward into the waters offshore of the North Carolina/Virginia border. The pressure gradient between ex-Ophelia and strong surface ridge protruding from eastern Canada is still driving winds blowing toward shore, resulting in coastal surf for New Jersey, Delaware, southeast Maryland, and southeast Virginia where coastal flood advisories are in effect as of this writing. This area of coastal surf will likely persist through this weekend as a northwestern Atlantic frontal low that potentially acquires subtropical characteristics materializes offshore, with Bermuda also experiencing coastal surf from this feature.

  • The remnant frontal cyclone of Nigel remains centered just south of Iceland. Ex-Nigel and another frontal cyclone now pivoting toward the British Isles will be brining ongoing coastal surf to the shores of southeast Greenland, Iceland, and the British Isles for another 24 hours. Gusty winds will also continue across the British Isles and Iceland for another 24 hours.

  • A tropical wave of low pressure with vigorous thunderstorm activity continues moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Based on the latest satellite pictures, the area of maximum spin and thunderstorms is back to being aligned with previous forecasts such that heavy rainfall and gusty winds remain possible for Belize and the Yucatan region of Mexico by Thursday regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not.

  • Tropical Storm Philippe's forecast track has shifted back toward the northeastern Caribbean islands. However Philippe is forecast to pass north of the islands by late this week and into the weekend and as a weak tropical cyclone such that the potential for coastal surf for the islands is medium instead of high.

  • As the author of, I have also been monitoring the progress of the worldwide outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. The COVID-19 page has not been updated over the several months. The COVID-19 page will be updated soon to review how the virus has progressed in 2021 and 2022, in the meantime it is important to keep up with the latest vaccinations and boosters to suppress the spread and severity of the virus.


Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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