top of page
Home: Text

BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

Home: Text
Home: Blog2
Search
  • Writer's pictureNCHurricane2009

MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #67

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...UPDATE...FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 1 2023 12:55 PM EDT...

The following are recent events with the following Atlantic storm systems:

(1) URGENT - The remnant frontal cyclone of Idalia has moved faster to the east toward Bermuda. Weather conditions in Bermuda will deteriorate later today instead of Saturday night with an increase in gusty winds... coastal surf... and rainfall. Preparations should be rushed to completion within the next few hours.

(2) Area of Interest #29... the remnants of Gert... have regenerated into a tropical depression as of 5 AM EDT today.

(3) Area of Interest #27... the tropical low pressure northwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... has strengthened into tropical depression twelve as of 11 AM EDT.


...FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 1 2023 1:40 AM EDT...

Two tropical cyclones are currently active in the Atlantic basin as follows:

(1) Hurricane Franklin is accelerating northeastward toward the open north Atlantic... and will produce wide-reaching coastal surf arriving to the shores of the northeastern US and Atlanic Canada (Nova Scotia and Newfoundland) over the next couple of days. See Franklin section below for more information.

(2) Tropical Storm Jose is currently in the open central Atlantic... see Jose section below for more information.


Idalia has emerged into the Atlantic from the Carolinas and has transitioned into a remnant frontal cyclone. However Idalia is expected to pass over or very near Bermuda as a tropical storm by this weekend. See Idalia section below for more information.


In addition... looking for possible development from other features as follows:

(1) See area of interest #27 section below for more information on an organizing tropical low pressure area currently centered just northwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands

(2) See area of interest #29 section below for the remnants of Gert which are attempting to make a comeback in the western Atlantic while located between Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Jose.

(3) See area of interest #30 section below for a tropical wave of low pressure which may attempt to develop while later moving across the eastern tropical Atlantic and possibly very near to the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands over the next few days.


HURRICANE FRANKLIN... Franklin is moving east-northeast away from Bermuda under the influence of the south side of an Atlantic Canada frontal cyclone and its upper trough... and has become increasingly disrupted by westerly shear imparted by the southern base of the upper trough which is affecting the northwestern periphery of the hurricane. Franklin has lost its eye under this disruption... however the shear has not been excessive as thunderstorms continue to cover the center of circulation due to the fact the upper trough is concentrating away from Franklin and toward the Atlantic Canada frontal cyclone as the intense frontal cyclone is pulling the cold air associated with the upper trough toward itself. As a result Franklin has been slower to weaken compared to my previous forecast while still holding category 2 force (100 mph max sustained winds) through today's NHC 11 AM EDT advisory. Franklin is tracking slower... as well as more east and less northward... while failing to stay coupled with the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of the upper trough as the upper trough is concentrating away from Franklin... instead Frankin is now in more weaker and more westerly upper-level steering south of the upper trough. Eventually Franklin is still forecast to turn on a more north and less east angle as its northwest side pulls down some cold air associated with the passing upper trough... which will make an amplified local upper trough whose east side bends Franklin's track. The ECMWF and GFS have converged on a consistent track forecast while the NAVGEM is west of the GFS/ECMWF consensus while probably overdoing this interaction and as a result excessively hooking Franklin's track. My updated track forecast below is similar to the emerging GFS/ECMWF consensus. Intensity-wise... my updated forecast is adjusted to account for Franklin's slower than previously anticipated weakening... but still calls for Franklin to weaken further in the next 24 hours as the initial pull of cold air brings the south end of the upper trough and its shearing upper winds closer to the hurricane. By 48 hours the updated forecast track has Franklin merging with the cold front trailing from what is now the Atlantic Canada frontal cyclone... resulting in transition into a remnant frontal cyclone supported by the eastern divergence zone of the aforementioned local amplified upper trough. The amplified nature of the local upper trough will allow for increased divergence over Franklin... and as a result it is possible Franklin simply maintains strength or even re-strengthens a bit while transitioning into a frontal cyclone in the 24 to 48 hour window.


Regarding impact to land areas... the updated forecast track allows for coastal surf generated by Franklin to continue reaching the northeastern US shoreline for another 24 hours... with coastal surf reaching the shores of Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia and Newfoundland) through 48 hours and declining afterwards as what will be the remnant frontal cyclone of Franklin finally pulls away.


Update through 11 PM EDT... Franklin has continued to weaken under wind shear to a category 1 with 85 mph maximum sustained winds

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1800Z Aug 31)... 100 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered northeast of Bermuda at 35.1N-61.6W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 1)... 80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the central Atlantic at 36.5N-55W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 2)... Hurricane-force remnant frontal cyclone centered south-southeast of Newfoundland at 42.5N-50W

******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT**************************

5-day Position (0000Z Sep 6)... 35 mph maximum sustained wind frontal low centered in the northeast Atlantic at 53.2N-25.8W


TROPICAL STORM IDALIA (RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TO REMNANTS OF IDALIA)... As expected... Tropical Storm Idalia has accelerated eastward away from the Carolinas and into the western Atlantic under the influence of the upper trough to the north and associated Atlantic Canada surface frontal cyclone. The frontal cyclone has had enough oomph to push the regional surface cold front eastward into Idalia... and Idalia has lost its thunderstorm activity. Despite this... Idalia has actually strengthened slightly to 65 mph maximum sustained winds from 60 mph while enhanced by upper divergence between westerlies on the north side of the western Atlantic upper anticyclone and southwesterlies streaming into the east side of the aforementioned upper trough. These observations indicate Idalia is now maintaining strength without thunderstorm activity and thru upper divergence while along a cold front... therefore Idalia has become a remnant non-tropical frontal cyclone after all as previously forecasted during full post #65 and beforehand. However the NHC is maintaining advisories... a forecast track... and forecast intensity on ex-Idalia... and a tropical storm watch as of this writing is in effect for Bermuda... as ex-Idalia could regain tropical cyclone status while continuing eastward in the general direction of Bermuda. I have likewise begun a track and intensity forecast for ex-Idalia covering the next five days as outlined below.


The combination of upper westerly flow... the surface circulation of Franklin to the east... and a building oblong surface ridge to the northwest should push Idalia east-southeast over the next 24 hours (the oblong surface ridge contributes to the southward deflection of the eastward track and is induced by the convergent back side of the upper trough to the north and southeast US upper trough fragment to the west). Franklin should be pulling cold air associated with the upper trough southward toward ex-Idalia... thus the upper air divergence pattern between westerlies on the north side of the west Atlantic upper anticyclone and southwesterlies streaming into the east side of the southward-sagging upper trough should remain over ex-Idalia for another 24 hours and keep ex-Idalia's current strength. As the oblong surface ridge to the northwest gains strength... ex-Idalia's track takes a larger southward dive between 24 and 48 hours... however I am more east than for example what this past 0600Z GFS model run showed as Franklin has been slower to move to the northeast and may be lingering around to keep pulling ex-Idalia eastward. During this time the southward-sagging upper trough base may overspread ex-Idalia with linear upper westerly flow lacking upper divergence... thus I show weakening back to 60 mph max sustained winds during this timeframe. By 72+ hours what is currently the northwestern US upper trough dives into the northwest Atlantic while amplifying. The amplification of the northwest Atlantic upper trough is brought about by the approach of the current western US amplfied upper ridge into the eastern US while ex-Idalia pulls cold air associated with this upper trough southward. The potential for westerly shear over ex-Idalia to reduce while upper divergence increases... due to the amplification of this upper trough... may allow ex-Idalia to re-build thunderstorms near the center and regain tropical characteristics which is shown in my forecast below for now. However during this time I do not show Idalia gaining strength above 60 mph max sustained winds as it is unclear how amplified the upper trough may be... if its not amplified quiet enough it may continue to produce some shear that inhibits intensification. The forecast track bends increasingly northeastward across Bermuda and then north into the northwest Atlantic due to the steering provided by the east side of the amplified upper trough. However the northward speed progressively slows through 120 hours as Idalia encounters a blocking surface ridge to the north induced by the eastern convergence zone of the amplified eastern US upper ridge.


Regarding impact to land areas:

(1) Idalia produced strong wind gusts across the far eastern part of North Carolina through much of this past afternoon (National Weather Service station observations at weather.gov)... however since then wind gusts have retreated with Idalia now accelerating eastward and away. Heavy rainfall has also exited North Carolina and the remaining mid-Atlantic United States... however the mid-Atlantic coast is still seeing coastal surf that will gradually dwindle over the next 24 hours with Idalia's departure.

(2) Interests in Bermuda should now be preparing for another dose of gusty winds... heavy rainfall... and coastal surf from Idalia to move in by late Saturday not long after Franklin produced similar impacts to the island. The wind impact may be more severe and than what was seen with Franklin... and produce some damage... as Idalia's center is forecast to pass over or near the island and there is some uncertainty in Idalia's long range intensity forecast... for instance the shear could be low enough to in fact allow Idalia to re-intensify as it crosses Bermuda.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1800Z Aug 31)... 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm transitioning into a frontal cyclone and centered southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks at 33.6N-74.8W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 1)... 65 mph maximum sustained wind frontal cyclone centered west of Bermuda at 32.5N-70W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 2)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind frontal cyclone centered just southwest of Bermuda at 30N-66.5W

IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 3)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered just northeast of Bermuda at 33.5N-63W

IOH 96 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 4)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Atlantic at 34.5N-60.5W

IOH 120 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 5)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the northwestern Atlantic at 37N-60.5W

******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT*************************

5-day position (0000Z Sep 6)... 50 mph maximum sustained wind non-tropical frontal cyclone centered in the northwestern Atlantic at 38.7N-61W


TROPICAL STORM JOSE... Tropical Depression Eleven's strengthening into Tropical Storm Jose within the last 24 hours was facilitated by a lower shear and better upper outflow environment as Franklin's upper anticyclone was knocked away from the hurricane and pushed over Jose by the current Atlantic Canada upper trough. Jose however has also not strengthened beyond a minimal tropical storm (40 mph maximum sustained winds)... likely as Jose is having to compete for surface inflow with Franklin approaching from the west and the remnants of Gert (Area of Interest #29) to the southwest. Jose has begun to accelerate northward in the flow east of Franklin. Because Franklin has been slow to accelerate northeastward than prior forecasts... the updated forecast for Franklin allows the east side of Franklin to simply absorb tiny Tropical Storm Jose with its east side in the next 24 hours (instead of Franklin accelerating faster to the northeast to the north of Jose and driving a cold front into Jose... which would have allowed Jose to potentially linger as a remnant frontal low for some time). This is my planned final statement on Jose on this blog as it is anticipated that Jose will already be absorbed and gone by my next full update on the Atlantic tropics.


Update as of 11 PM EDT... compact Tropical Storm Jose has strengthened to 60 mph maximum sustained winds while abruptly developing a small area of stronger thunderstorms near its center. Jose is still expected to lose its identity to Franklin in the next 24 hours.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1800Z Aug 31)... 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the central Atlantic at 30.8N-52.2W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 1)... Absorbed by northeast side of Franklin while located near 38N-51.5W

******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT**************************

Loss of tropical cyclone status (1200Z Sep 2)... Absorbed by Franklin


AREA OF INTEREST #27... The center of the tropical low pressure near the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands is beginning to pull westward and away from the islands while continuing to remain organized... and there is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. As a result I have begun a tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast for this system as outlined below. The track forecast has this system curves increasingly northwest... north-northwest... and then northward into and across the mid-latitudes of the eastern Atlantic while moving into a surface ridge weakness to be maintained by the presence of Idalia and ex-Gert (area of interest #29). Upper southerly flow on the east side of the current eastern Atalntic upper vorticity is expected to also aid in the northward turn... particularly since there is a high chance of this system being a strong/tall tropical cyclone to also be steered by upper winds. Even though this system for the next 24 hours is in a haven of warm sea surface temperatures in combination with low shear and outflow beneath a regional tropical upper ridge... I do not forecast brisk intensification as the thunderstorm activiy has been on the weaker side which may be a sign of stability caused by dry Saharan air. Intensity is then held constant between 24 and 48 hours while this system encounters some increased southerly shear on the east side of the current eastern Atlantic upper vorticity. By 72+ hours the latest model data indicates the upper vorticity begins to weaken into a small upper vortex due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... with this system potentially getting enchanced by reduced shear and increased divergence on the vortex's east side... as a result I forecast some additional strenghtening in the 72 and 96 hour period. By 120 hours I begin to lower the intensity forecast as this system moves north into mid-latitude upper westerly shearing flow.


Trailing pockets of showers and thunderstorms on the southeast side of the tropical low may overspread the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds over the next 24 hours regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1800Z Aug 31)... Tropical low centered just west of the northwestern Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 17N-26W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 1)... 50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern tropical Atlantic at 20N-30W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 2)... 50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Atlantic at 25N-34W

IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 3)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Atlantic at 28N-37W

IOH 96 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 4)... 70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Atlantic at 31.5N-37.5W

IOH 120 Hr Forecast (1800Z Sep 5)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Atlantic at 34.5N-37.5W

******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT*****************************

Formation chance through 48 hours...90%

Formation chance through 7 days (168 hours)...90%


AREA OF INTEREST #29 (REMNANTS OF GERT)... The remnant low pressure of Gert... located near 28.8N-57W in the open central Atlantic... has been held back from being pulled north into Franklin thanks to a fujiwhara interaction with Tropical Storm Jose to the northeast. My updated forecast track for ex-Gert shown in the outlook below shows an east-northeast turn over the next 48 hours in the flow on the south side of Franklin. Ex-Gert is then likely to become quasi-stationary between 48 and 72 hours while sandwiched between the Atlantic surface ridge to the east and another surface ridge to the northwest to be generated by the eastern convergence zone of an upper ridge to move into the eastern US. Some northward motion is shown after 72 hours as Idalia moves closer and pulls ex-Gert northward with its east side. Regarding odds of tropical cyclone formation... I continue to have odds no higher than 20% for the next 24 hours as ex-Gert is becoming sheared by the outflow of Franklin. By 48 hours ex-Gert is likely to lose tropical characteristics as the cold front driven by Franklin overspreads this system. In the longer range ex-Gert could regain thunderstorms and tropical characteristics underneath the outflow of a warm air mass upper ridge that develops due to warm southerly flow on the east side of Idalia... therefore I return to odds of development above 0% by 72+ hours. However even for the long term I keep odds of development capped at 20% as the forecast track may place ex-Gert into westerly shear on the north side of the warm air mass upper ridge. By 120 hours I dip odds below the 20% cap as the forecast position embeds ex-Gert moreso in the shearing upper westerlies.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 1)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 31N-53.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 2)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 31.5N-50.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 3)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 31.5N-50W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 4)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 33N-50W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 5)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 35N-50W)

******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT*****************************

Formation chance through 48 hours...40%

Formation chance through 7 days (168 hours)...40%


AREA OF INTEREST #30... Satellite imagery shows a tropical wave of low pressure over western Africa is beginning to produce a more concentrated area of clouds and thunderstorms toward the south near 10N-10W... and computer models have insisted that this wave may later develop after it later enters the eastern tropical Atlantic. The NHC has added this wave into their tropical weather outlook... this marks the thirtieth Atlantic tropical area of interest tracked on this site this year. The westward forecast track in the outlook below is a litte slower than the normal 5W longitude per day pace... while also having a northward slant... due to the surface ridge weakness associated with Area of Interest (AOI) #27. The Atlantic surface ridge begins to recover by 120 hours once Idalia... ex-Gert... and AOI #27 begin to lift northward together... in response I bend the forecast track more westward with some increase in forward speed by day 5. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development for this troipcal wave due to the low shear and outflow of the regional tropical upper ridge... and combined with a model consensus suggesting development I have assigned peak 40% odds of tropical cyclone formation for the 5-day window... slightly higher than the NHC outlook as of 8 PM EDT. Note this tropical wave may produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds for the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands by Monday and Tuesday.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 1)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (near west coast of Africa near 11N-14W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 2)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of western Africa near 12N-19W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 3)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just south-southeast of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 13N-22.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 4)... 25% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 14N-26W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 5)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 15N-30W)

******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT*****************************

Formation chance through 48 hours...0%

Formation chance through 7 days (168 hours)...30%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Aug 31) CMC Model Run...

**Not available at above-mentioned source


0000Z (Aug 31) ECMWF Model Run...

**For Hurricane Franklin... transitons into a frontal cyclone near 40N-50.5W at 54 hours... frontal cyclone located near 48N-32.5W at 120 hours while an additional frontal cyclone to the southeast forms west of Portugal under the support of the current northeast Atlantic upper trough which later evolves into a cut-off upper vortex... ex-Franklin and the second frontal cyclone cyclonically orbit each other underneath the cut-off vortex and to the north of the Azores through 156 hours.

**For Tropical Storm Idalia... moves east-southeast to 30N-67W through 78 hours... while re-strengthening as a potential subtropical cyclone supported by the eastern divergence zone of an amplifying northwest Atlantic upper trough Idalia moves northeast across Bermuda by 96 hours and reaches 35N-60.5W at 120 hours

**For Tropical Storm Jose... lifts north to 35N-52.5W through 36 hours where it becomes absorbed by Franklin

**For area of interest #27... moves north-northwest to 22N-27.5W through 54 hours where tropical cyclone formation suggested... subsequently weakens to a remnant low near 23.5N-31W at 66 hours... weakening remnant low located at 26N-32W at 120 hours

**For area of interest #29... remnant low of Gert becomes attraced toward Franklin's circulation through 18 hours while drifting north-northeast to 29N-57.5W... through 36 hours misses absorption into Franklin while fujiwhara interaction with Jose pulls it east-southeastward to 28.5N-55W... through 102 hours transitions into a broad frontal low supported by incoming northwest Atlantic upper trough that drifts east-northeast to 30.5N-52.5W.... the position of the upper trough's divergence maximum favors Idalia to the west such that Idalia dominates and absorbs this system just after 120 hours while this system is located near 30.5N-51W

**For area of interest #30... tropical wave emerges from west coast of Africa at 60 hours and organizes into a tropical low southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 96 hours... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 12N-39W at 132 hours... as a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone reaches 14N-45W by 168 hours


0600Z (Aug 31) GFS Model Run...

**For Hurricane Franklin... transitions into a frontal cyclone near 38.5N-54W at 42 hours... continues northeast to the open northeast Atlantic near 54N-31.5W through 120 hours.

**For Tropical Storm Idalia... moves east-southeast to 30.5N-69.5W through 45 hours... as an elongated remnant non-tropical system with multiple centers supported by the divergence ahead of an incoming northwest Atlantic upper trough this system moves northeast and with the central area passing just southeast of Bermuda at 93 hours... the central area reaches 34N-60W through 120 hours.

**For Tropical Storm Jose... lifts north to 35.5N-51W through 33 hours where it becomes absorbed by Franklin

**For area of interest #27... tropical cyclone formation suggested just northwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands through 12 hours... as a rapidly strengthening tropical cyclone reaches 20N-29W through 30 hours... subsequently gradually weakens into a remnant low while continuing northwest to 30N-37W through 120 hours.

**For area of interest #29... remnant low of Gert moves east-northeast to 31N-50.5W through 42 hours while weakening to a trough... merges with cold front driven by ex-Franklin while located near 32.5N-50W through 63 hours and evolves into a frontal low... through 81 hours the frontal low re-gains tropical characteristics underenath a warm air mass upper ridge and evolves into a tropical cyclone near 31.5N-50W (the upper ridge matures from warm southerly flow on the east side of Idalia)... tropical cyclone moves north-northeast to 33N-49W through 120 hours in the flow ahead of Idalia where it weakens to a remnant low while reaching westerly shear on the north side of the warm air mass upper ridge.

**For area of interest #30... no development shown


0600Z (Aug 31) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For Hurricane Franklin... transitions into a frontal cyclone near 38N-51W at 48 hours... at the 48 hour position the northwest side of ex-Franklin pulls in cool air associated with passing upper trough to the north which makes a small amplified upper trough just west of ex-Franklin whose east side hooks ex-Franklin northward to 42.5N-48.5W through 72 hours... frontal cyclone then continues northeast into the open northeast Atlantic to 55N-34W through 120 hours

**For Tropical Storm Idalia... moves east-southeast to 30N-69W through 54 hours... moves east-northeast with the center passing southeast of Bermuda through 102 hours while intensifying into a hurricane... as a large and intense hurricane reaches 34.5N-59W through 120 hours

**For Tropical Storm Jose... lifts north into the southeast side of Franklin where it is absorbed at 30 hours

**For area of interest #27... moves north-northwest to 21N-29W through 48 hours where it develops into a tropical cyclone... weakens to a remnant low shortly thereafter with the remnant low reaching 28.5N-38W through 120 hours.

**For area of interest #29... remnants of Gert not shown to redevelop

**For area of interest #30... tropical wave emerges from the west coast of Africa at 66 hours and organizes into a tropical low near 11N-19W at 90 hours... strengthens into a tropical cyclone that moves northwest toward the southeastern Republic of Cabo Verde Islands through 120 hours.

35 views0 comments

Opmerkingen


bottom of page