*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY JUNE 29 2022 12:05 PM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics are still busy as we move toward the end of June with three current areas of interest being monitored for further development:
(1) A vigorous tropical wave of low pressure now in the southeastern Caribbean Sea with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation as it moves toward Central America... see area of interest #8 section below for more information.
(2) A tropical low in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is drifting west toward the Texas coast... see area of interest #9 section below for more details.
(3) A pair of tropical waves in the central tropical Atlantic forecast to merge into a singular system... see area of interest #10 section below for more details.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #8 through #10 as I designated the other seven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #8 (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO)... The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure that has been racing west across the central tropical Atlantic spent much of Tuesday and this morning entering the southeastern Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave has conitnued to become better organized while building and sustaining a solid shield of strong thunderstorm bands around its low pressure center. Due to its fast forward speed...the tropical wave is already bearing down on the ABC Islands Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao where tropical storm conditions are expected from this vigorous tropical wave later today. Although the wave is not technically a tropical storm while the low pressure center lacks a fully closed spin due to its fast foward speed... I expect the the low pressure to establish a fully closed spin once it clears the north coast of South America and moves over the open water of the southern Caribbean where the negative effects of land interaction will be lessened. Therefore I have begun a tropical cyclone formation forecast with a specific track and intensity forecast.
The track forecast remains straightforward to the west at a continued quick speed. This is due to the strong deep-layer Atlantic ridge whose west side will soon be re-enforced by the current eastern US surface ridge merging with it. The eastern US surface ridge through 120 hours will remain in place while supported by the western convergence zone of the current broad upper trough over eastern Canada... followed by the southwestern convergence zone an upper vortex to drop southeast across central and eastern Canada. The intensity forecast is a balance between the fact that conditions for development are favorable with this system expected to stay below tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow... and the fact this system will continue moving rapidly which will make it challenging for this system to initially establish a closed circulation. Therefore a gradual strengthening rate is shown in the southern Caribbean Sea between 24 and 48 hours... and then again in the eastern Pacific from 96 to 120 hours. The intensity projection takes a dip around 72 hours due to expected landfall across southern Nicaragua. However due to the rapid forward speed of this system which is expected to continue... it seem logical that the period of land interaction with Nicaragua will be short-lived enough to allow this system to survive and continue on in the eastern Pacific. The models are also in agreement with this idea... which would mean this system would keep its Atlantic basin assigned name in the eastern Pacific. Therefore I will also be continuing forecasts on this system as it continues into the eastern Pacific.
With this forecast...the following impacts to land areas are anticipated:
(1) For Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao... expect heavy rainfall... gusty winds...and coastal sea swells today.
(2) I recommend interests in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica prepare for possible strong tropical storm conditions (gusty winds with some damage potential... heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential... and coastal sea swells). Such conditions would arrive Saturday.
(3) Once in the eastern Pacific... this system could re-strengthen which would induce coastal sea swells for the south coasts of Mexico and Guatemala next week.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1200Z Jun 29)... Tropical low centered east-southeast of the ABC Islands (Aruba Bonaire and Curacao) at 11.5N-66.5W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jun 30)...Tropical low centered just offshore Colobmia at 12N-73W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 1)...50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the southern Caribbean Sea at 12.5N-79W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 2)...40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over southern Nicarauga at 12.5N-85W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 3)...50 mph maximum sustained wind troipcal storm centered over the eastern Pacific at 12.5N-91W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 4)...70 mph maximum sustained wind troipcal storm centered in the eastern Pacific at 12.5N-97W
AREA OF INTEREST #9...Since special update #45A on the home page of this site... the tropical low pressure system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become less organized from what appears to be light southwesterly shear. The shear is present as this system has drifted to the west side of the upper ridge in the region where the upper flow is less anticyclonic and more linear and coming from the southwest. The surface circulation also apperas a little more elongated southwest-northeast. However toward the south side of the elongated circulation... it appears based on the latest visible satellite pictures that a swirl center is developing. The shear also appears to be light enough to still allow thunderstorms to be located near this swirl center... therefore I maintain 50% odds of tropical cyclone formation from special update #45A. The southwest side of the current eastern US surface ridge is expected to drive this system into the Texas coast over the next day or so.
Due to the southward relocation of the best-defined center...the following are adjustments to potential impacts on the Texas coast:
(1) Heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding potential along much of the coast (previously stated from Matagorda Bay northeastward to the border with Louisiana)
(2) A small area of breezy or gusty winds may occurr along the coast and south of Matagorda Bay should this system become a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm (previosly stated in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay)
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 30)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of the south Texas coast near 27.2N-97.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 1)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over southern Texas near 29.8N-97.8W)
AREA OF INTEREST #10...The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that was chasing area of interest #8 has slowed down in the vicinity of 50W longitude and buckled on a more south angle in its westward track... while caught in a fujiwhara interaction with the adjacent tropical wave to the northeast currrently in the vicnity of 40W longitude. The models now agree that the interaction will conclude with the two waves merging into a southwest-northeast elongated singular tropical wave. The northeastern wave in the merger is helping to waft in the dry saharan air to the north... therefore it is likely the merged wave will struggle with dry air. In addition the more north location of the merged wave will tend to expose it to southwesterly shear being induced by the current upper vorticity in the mid-latitudes of the central Atlantic and leftovers of the current western Atlantic upper trough. Therefore I do not expect tropical cyclone formation from the merged wave... and plan this to be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook by my next update.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 30)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-50W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/)
0000Z (Jun 29) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested offshore of Costa Rica at 60 hours...makes landfall at the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border at 72 hours.
**For area of interest #9... surface low makes landfall just north of the Texas/Mexico border at 42 hours... dissipates shortly theraefter.
**For area of interest #10...tropical waves at 40W and 50W longitude merge into a single disturbance... disturbance evolves into a tropical low near 13N-57.5W at 54 hours... crosses the central Lesser Antilles at 66 hours... tropical low opens back into a wave just southwest of Puerto Rico at 90 hours... wave passes over Jamaica at 120 hours.
0000Z (Jun 29) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical disturbance makes landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border at 72 hours.
**For area of interest #9... surface low makes landfall in southern Texas between 24 and 48 hours... dissipates from the landfall by 48 hours.
**For area of interest #10...no development shown
0600Z (Jun 29) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested in the southern Caribbean Sea at 60 hours near 11N-81W... makes landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border at 72 hours
**For area of interest #9... surface low makes landfall in southern Texas at 30 hours... shortly thereafter dissipates from the landfall.
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0000Z (Jun 29) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested in the southern Caribbean Sea near 11.5N-79W at 54 hours... makes landfall over southeastern Nicaragua at 78 hours.
**For area of interest #9... surface low dissipates just offshore of the Texas/Mexico border at 30 hours.
**For area of interest #10...no development shown.