*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY JUNE 28 2022 6:30 AM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics remain busy as we move toward the end of June with three current areas of interest being monitored for further development:
(1) A vigorous tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has high potential to become a tropical cyclone as it barrels toward the northeast coast of Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean islands in the days ahead... see area of interest #8 section below for more details.
(2) A tropical low in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is drifting west toward the Texas coast... see area of interest #9 section below for more details.
(3) A vigorous tropical wave is trailing close behind Area of Interest #8… see area of interest #10 section below for more details.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #8 through #10 as I designated the other seven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #8 (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO)... The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic continues barreling westward while en route to northeastern Venezuela and southeastern region of the Caribbean Sea. Over the last several hours… aircraft reconnaissance found the wave was producing 40 mph max sustained winds but did not yet have a fully closed surface circulation to declare a tropical storm. Subsequently the wave last night and through the early morning hours has become better organized with increasing banding features in the thunderstorm activity. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the wave to Potential Tropical Cyclone Two as it is producing tropical storm conditions and has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation… in order to issue tropical storm warnings for those in the path of this tropical wave.
Due to the increased organization of the tropical wave mentioned in the prior paragraph… my short-term odds of tropical cyclone formation are a little higher than the NHC as of this writing… at 80%. Once this system clears the South American land mass (northern Venezuela and far northern Colombia) and heads into the open south-central Caribbean waters where land interaction is no longer a factor… I raise odds of development to 90%. This is also where runs of the CMC... NAVGEM... GFS... and ECMWF models agree that this system will be a tropical cyclone. It should be noted that other than potential land interaction with South America and the fast forward speed of the wave which makes it harder to develop a fully closed surface circulation... conditions for tropical cyclone formation are otherwise favorable as this system will remain below tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow.
As of 0000Z earlier today the apparent center of rotation of the tropical wave passed near 9N-52W... on par with the previous forecast track… therefore the updated one in the outlook below is the same as previous. The track is expected to continue west with little northward angle as the strong Atlantic deep-layer ridge will persist unabated during the 5-day forecast period. In particular... a strengthening surface ridge approaching from the central US will merge with the west side of the Atlantic deep-layer ridge... only helping to keep the Atlantic ridge intact. With this forecast track:
(1) Interests in southern Lesser Antilles... Trinidad and Tobago... and the northeast coast of Venezuela are expected to see gusty winds and rough surf along the coast tonight. It should be noted that another tropical wave behind this system (area of Interest #10) may bring more disturbed weather to this region by Thursday evening.
(2) I recommend interests in Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao begin preparing for possible tropical storm conditions (gusty winds and coastal sea swells) to arrive late Wednesday…. as the wave has a little more time to possibly strengthen before reaching these islands. It should be noted that another tropical wave behind this system (area of Interest #10) may bring more disturbed weather to these islands this weekend.
(3) Interests along the east coast of Nicaragua are encouraged to monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to approach the region this weekend… possibly as a strong tropical storm or hurricane.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Trinidad near 10N-58W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean just offshore of northeastern Venezuela near 11N-64.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Just west of Aruba and offshore of northwestern Venezuela near 12.2N-71W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-central Caribbean Sea near 13N-77.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 3)… 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of northern Nicaragua near 14N-83W)
AREA OF INTEREST #9...The tropical low pressure system that was over Louisiana has moved southwest into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while pushed by the surface ridge moving through the central US. However this system lacks a well-defined center of spin and thunderstorms. I speculate the loss of thunderstorms is due to the center of the upper ridge in the region being off to the east… thus this system is no longer aligned with the location of optimal upper outflow. At this time I project that this system will run out of time to develop a well-defined center of spin before it makes landfall on the Texas coast just after 24 hours. I plan this to be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned by the National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook by my next update.
On a final note... showers and thunderstorms have begun to increase on the north side of this system in the latest satellite frames. This system even without tropical cyclone formation may produce heavy rains along the coastal region of Texas over the next day or so… possibly inducing some some isolated flash flooding.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of Texas near 28N-94W)
AREA OF INTEREST #10...A vigorous tropical wave of low pressure on the heels of Area of Interest #8 was passing 42.5W as of 0000Z earlier today. This wave has had a history of producing organized banding features in its thunderstorms… and model support on Monday showing development was mixed with the CMC and GFS suggestion some development while the ECMWF and NAVGEM did not show development. Nonetheless this wave is now the tenth Atlantic tropical area of Interest on this blog as the NHC added it to their tropical weather outlook on Monday.
The CMC and GFS on Monday suggested interaction with the nearby tropical wave to the east that was passing 30W longitude as of 0000Z… but with two different outcomes. The CMC suggested the track of this wave would buckle on a more southward angle under a fujiwhara interaction with the adjacent wave… while the GFS suggests a slow down in the forward speed of this wave and a track that bends more north while absorbing the adjacent wave to approach from the northeast. My forecast track splits the difference between the two ideas… which increases land interaction with the north coast of South America. In the outlook below… my odds of development are slightly below the NHC as of this writing while at 10%… due to the potential land interaction and also with this wave suffering competition with Area of Interest #8 and the adjacent wave to the east for surface inflow and upper outflow. This wave may act to bring additional disturbed weather to those already in the path of Area of Interest #8 while following closely behind… see Area of Interest #8 section above for more info.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 7.5N-48.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8.5N-54.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just southeast of Trinidad near 9.5N-60W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of north-central Venezuela near 10.5N-66W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 3)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of northwestern Venezuela near 11.5N-72W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/)
1200Z (Jun 27) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 9.5N-57.5W at 24 hours... crosses Trinidad between 36 and 42 hours... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 60 to 66 hours... makes landfall on east coast of Nicaragua at 114 hours... located over northwestern Nicaragua at 120 hours while undergoing post-landfall weakening.
**For area of interest #9... a defined surface low pressure center develops offshore of Texas near 26.5N-93.5W at 30 hours... weakens to a dissipating surface trough at 60 hours as it makes landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border
**For area of interest #10...tropical wave evolves into a tropical low near 8N-53.5W at 66 hours... makes landfall at the Venezuela/Guyana border at 96 hours as a possible tropical depression after which time it dissipates from landfall (the far south track and landfall location due to fujiwhara interaction with adjacent tropical wave to the east).
**Tropical wave currently at 30W becomes a possible tropical depression near 9.5N-34W...bends west-northwest in track while undergoing a fujiwhara interaction with area of interest #10 and in the process weakens to a tropical wave near 13N-50.5W at 84 hours... wave crosses the northern Lesser Antilles at 120 hours.
1200Z (Jun 27) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles after 24 hours as a tropical low... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) between 48 and 72 hours still as a tropical low... tropical cyclone formation suggested offshore of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border at 96 hours... after crossing Central America at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border enters the eastern Pacific still as a tropical cyclone at 120 hours.
**For area of interest #9...a defined surface low pressure center develops offshore of Texas near 27.5N-96.5W at 72 hours... makes landfall and dissipates shortly thereafter.
**For area of interest #10...tropical wave becomes a tropical low near 10N-51.5W... weakens back to a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles at 96 hours... crosses the Lesser Antilles and enters the eastern Caribbean Sea by 120 hours still as a wave.
1800Z (Jun 27) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... crosses Trinidad as a tropical wave at 42 hours... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 60 to 72 hours while evolving into a tropical low... tropical cyclone formation suggested in the southern Caribbean near 12N-79.5W at 108 hours... tropical cyclone makes landfall on the east coast of Nicaragua at 132 hours.
**For area of interest #9...a defined surface low pressure center develops in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near 27.5N-93.5W at 18 hours... makes landfall just north of the Texas/Mexico border at 60 hours... dissipates over southern Texas at 84 hours.
**For area of interest #10...tropical wave becomes a tropical low near 9N-54.5W at 60 hours... while absorbing adjacent tropical wave to the northeast the track of the tropical low bends more west-northwest and crosses the northern Lesser Antilles at 108 hours... tropical low located just south of the Virgin Islands at 120 hours.
**Tropical wave currently at 30W becomes a tropical low near 10.5N-46.4W at 54 hours... becomes absorbed into the northeast side of area of interest #10 at 72 hours.
0000Z (Jun 27) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 54 hours as a tropical cyclone... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 66 to 78 hours... tropical cyclone approaches the north coast of Nicaragua at 126 hours.
**For area of interest #9... a defined surface low pressure center develops in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near 26.5N-93W at 42 hours... drifts north and makes landfall on the Texas coast near 28.5N-96.5W at 90 hours...continues north into inland northeastern Texas where it dissipates shortly after 120 hours.
**For area of interest #10...no development shown.