*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…SATURDAY JUNE 18 2022 11:33 PM EDT...
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Celia centered just offshore of the Guatemala/El Salvador border… the former western Caribbean tropical low which has moved into Belize and northern Guatemala over the last several hours… and a tropical wave of low pressure currently crossing the central Caribbean have combined to make a sprawling area of low pressure across Central America… southeast Mexico… and the far eastern tropical Pacific. See area of interest #6 below for more information on this system.
Elsewhere… the currently developing deep-layer ridge over the United States is expected to push some of the upper vorticity tied to the current eastern Canada upper trough southward across the western Atlantic and then southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Once in the Gulf… this upper vorticity may aid to increase thunderstorm activity and drop surface pressures in the central Caribbean in about four days… due to a zone of upper divergence to setup between the south side of the upper vorticity and north side of a low-latitude tropical upper ridge over Central America. Any unfavorable wind shear induced by the upper vorticity is then likely to fade as the upper vorticity weakens while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air… and a tropical disturbance could form in the central Caribbean as a result. Currently there is not enough computer model support to declare an area of interest in this region… if model support increases or if observations warrant an area of interest would be added in future updates.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #6 as I designated the other five of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #6… Per the intro section of this blog post… a few features have combined to make a broad surface low pressure area across Central America… southeastern Mexico… and the far eastern Pacific. Tropical Depression Celia is retaining its identity within this low pressure area at a location just offshore of the Guatemala/El Salvador border. Meanwhile the former western Caribbean low pressure spin which was tied to this area of interest has lost its identity within the north side of the broad low pressure area…. however I am currently tying this area of interest to the cluster of thunderstorms that were pivoting west across northern Guatemala and now pivoting across southeastern Mexico and toward the eastern Bay of Campeche. Computer model continue showing Celia becoming the dominant feature in the region… resulting in a lack of development elsewhere in the broad low pressure area. Celia is then shown in the longer range accelerating westward and away while escaping the influence of the defeated low pressure area. There are a couple of factors however that can still allow the north side of the broad low pressure area to develop in the Bay of Campeche… (1) the fact that Celia is still a relatively weak tropical cyclone while still in competition with the rest of the broad low pressure area… (2) a sprawling tropical upper ridge with low shear/upper outflow remains in the region. However out of respect for the latest model consensus and the fact that this area of interest does not currently have a distinct low pressure spin… I have lowered peak odds of Bay of Campeche tropical cyclone formation to 10% in this update.
Regarding impacts to land areas:
(1) Expect additional pockets of heavy rain across Central America and southeastern Mexico.
(2) Once Tropical Depression Celia moves westward and away… and potentially strengthens due to increased distance from and reduced competition with this area of interest… it has potential to bring sea swells to the south coast of Mexico next week. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on Celia as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
(3) The potential for tropical storm impacts to the coast of Veracruz Mexico… which would occur Monday if Bay of Campeche tropical cyclone formation happens… is very low.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 20)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bay of Campeche near 18.8N-93.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 21)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Coast of Veracruz near 20N-96.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 22)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east-central Mexico near 20.5N-99W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 18) CMC Model Run...
1200Z (Jun 18) ECMWF Model Run...
**Current east Canada upper trough deposits upper vortex offshore of the eastern US at 96 hours… split flow upper divergence between the west side of the vortex and east side of the deep-layer ridge currently building over the US drops surface pressures over Virginia and the Carolinas during this time… as upper vortex drifts southwest a broad surface low becomes defined across the southeast US by 120 hours… east side of broad surface low becomes a tropical cyclone offshore of the southeast US at 31N-78W at 144 hours.
1800Z (Jun 18) GFS Model Run...
1200Z (Jun 18) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Surface low becomes defined east of Nicaragua at 114 hours… possible tropical development at the north coast of Nicaragua at 144 hours
**Current east Canada upper trough deposits upper vortex offshore of the eastern US at 96 hours… split flow upper divergence between the west side of the vortex and east side of the deep-layer ridge currently building over the US drops surface pressures over Virginia and the Carolinas at 102 hours… as upper vortex drifts southwest a broad surface low becomes defined across the southeast US by 126 hours… east end of the broad surface low evolves into an amplified surface trough offshore of the southeast US by 144 hours