MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #33
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…THURSDAY JUNE 16 2022 12:28 AM EDT...
See Area of Interest #6 below for an update on the southern Caribbean low pressure spin which has recently made landfall in southeastern Nicaragua. This system still has development potential while having the opportunity to swing back over Caribbean water in 48 hours… followed by a passage over or near the Bay of Campeche late this weekend and early next week.
Elsewhere… there are no signs of a tropical disturbance developing on the tail end of the cold front currently located offshore of the southeastern United States. The tail end of the current cold front currently rolling through the central United States is expected to settle in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in 3 to 4 days. The front has the potential to kick off a tropical disturbance at this location due to the approach of a deep-layer ridge to the northwest which will keep wind shear low.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #6 as I designated the other five of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #6… Twin tropical low pressure spins are continuing on either side of Central America. The eastern of the two spins… from the southern Caribbean Sea… has become disorganized while making landfall in southeastern Nicaragua and also due to vertical westerly shear induced by the nearby lobe of upper vorticity to its northwest. The western of the two spins… located in the far eastern tropical Pacific… has also become notably less organized this evening. This could be from excess competition for surface inflow and upper outflow with Hurricane Blas to its west and the southeastern Nicaragua spin to its east. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on the far eastern Pacific low pressure spin and also Hurricane Blas as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
In the outlook below… the short-term track forecast for the southeastern Nicaragua low pressure spin has more land interaction with Nicaragua and Honduras due to the fact this system has moved inland today. A northward swing in track is anticipated in the next 24 hours due to a myriad of factors… including potential fujiwhara interaction with the far eastern Pacific low pressure spin… a surface ridge weakness to the north caused by the strong frontal system to move into the eastern US from its current western US position… and the influence of the upper vorticity lobe to the northwest. A more westward track is anticipated after 24 hours… possibly from the fujiwhara interaction with the eastern Pacific low pressure being ended by possible absorption of the eastern Pacific feature into this system. The westward turn is also expected due to the expected weakening of the cold core northwestern lobe of upper vorticity (as it remains cut-off from high-latitude cold air) and deep-layer ridge to build over the US in the wake of the departing eastern US frontal system.
Regarding probabilities of tropical cyclone formation for the current southeast Nicaragua low pressure spin… I agree with the NHC lowering the peak 5-day odds of development to 20% due to the increased land interaction now imminent with Nicaragua and Honduras. In the updated outlook below… 20% is listed for 48 hours when the low pressure spin has a chance to emerge into the waters offshore of Belize and Honduras… and this is also when the nearby northwestern lobe of upper vorticity and its wind shear weakens. 20% is again listed for 120 hours when the low pressure spin has a chance to emerge into the Bay of Campeche waters in a persistent low shear environment. Odds for other timeframes are lower due to land interaction along the forecast track.
Regarding impacts to land areas:
(1) Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not… the combo of both the eastern Pacific low pressure and this area of interest may cause heavy rains thru Friday and into the weekend across Costa Rica… Honduras… Nicaragua… El Salvador… Guatemala… Belize… and the Mexican provinces Chiapas… Oaxaca… southern Veracruz… Tabasco… Campeche… and southern Quintana Roo. Any excess rains can result in flash flooding or mudslides.
(2) Interests on the south coasts of El Salvador… Guatemala… Chiapas… and Oaxaca should be aware of possible eastern Pacific tropical cyclone formation thru Friday and into the weekend which would increase gusty winds and coastal sea swells. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on potential eastern Pacific development as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
(3) Interests on the north coast of Honduras… and the east coast of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico (Quintana Roo) should be aware of possible tropical cyclone formation thru Friday which would increase gusty winds and coastal sea swells.
(4) Interests along the coast of Veracruz Mexico should be aware of possible tropical cyclone formation from this area of interest when it passes over or near the Bay of Campeche just after this weekend.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 17)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeastern Nicaragua near 14.5N-83.9W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 18)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of Honduras near 16.2N-85.2W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 19)…10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northern Belize near 17.5N-88.8W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 20)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bay of Campeche Mexico coast near 18.8N-92.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 21)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Just offshore of Veracruz near 20N-95.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 15) CMC Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… Caribbean tropical low becomes better defined after moving northwest to the waters offshore of northern Honduras at 42 hours… through 66 hours the Caribbean circulation pulls the nearby eastern Pacific circulation north into El Salvador with the merged circulation becoming large/broad… after reaching the Bay of Campeche at 96 and 120 hours the broad circulation dissipates
1200Z (Jun 15) ECMWF Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… no development shown
1800Z (Jun 15) GFS Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… Caribbean tropical low becomes better defined after moving northwest to the waters offshore of northern Honduras at 33 hours… makes landfall are the Belize/Mexico border at 66 hours… after which time it gets pulled west-southwest into northern Guatemala by 96 hours due to the tug of the nearby forecast eastern Pacific tropical cyclone… weakens to a surface trough over southeast Mexico by 135 hours which allows the nearby eastern Pacific tropical cyclone to accelerate westward and away.
1200Z (Jun 15) NAVGEM Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… no development shown