*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…FRIDAY JUNE 10 2022 12:22 AM EDT...
The tropical upper ridge currently over the southern Caribbean and eastern Pacific will be a focal point for potential tropical development in the days ahead due to its favorable low shear and upper outflow environment:
(1) Currently the upper ridge is suppressed southwestward toward the eastern Pacific due to cut-off upper vorticity currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This vorticity will be re-enforced in the next 48 hours by the current western Canada shortwave upper trough that has ejected from the current northeast Pacific upper vortex… as this shortwave upper trough passes near the Gulf of Mexico and over the eastern US. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for coverage of any potential eastern Pacific development as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
(2) At 72+ hours… the northeast Pacific upper vortex is forecast to finally shift into western North America where with its eastern divergence zone generates a strong surface frontal system. The warm sector of the frontal system is expected to build a central US upper anticyclone that will push the Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity westward and away… allowing the tropical upper ridge to expand back northward into the western Caribbean. Models vary on the possibility and timing of potential Caribbean tropical development… with some models not showing development at present… and with the latest GFS model runs being the furthest out in time when it comes to showing development. The GFS waits for the current Lesser Antilles upper vortex to retrograde westward across the Caribbean under the influence of the US upper anticyclone as it weakens while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air… with split flow divergence between this weakening upper vortex and tropical upper ridge being the catalyst for development.
(3) Current observations and the wide spread in model solutions do not currently allow for a Caribbean area of Interest to be declared at this time. An area of interest could be declared in future updates if computer models later converge on a solution or if later observations warrant.
Elsewhere… monitoring a pair of cold fronts to emerge into the western Atlantic from the eastern United States in the days ahead for possible tropical development… an additional area of Interest may be tagged in future updates as necessary:
(1) The first cold front is currently entering the western Atlantic while being driven by the current frontal low over the northeastern US. There are no signs of tropical development along this front… and the current shortwave upper trough over western Canada will quickly arrive and increase wind shear in the region. The CMC model has dropped showing development here… and no models are forecasting tropical development with this front.
(2) A batch of upper vorticity to separate from the northeast Pacific upper vortex at 36 hours will merge with the Central Canada upper vortex… resulting in an amplified upper trough that eventually drives a second cold front into the western Atlantic from the eastern US in approximately 5 days. The potential for tropical development along the tail end of this second front… at a location offshore of the southeastern US… at this time appears higher as wind shear is expected to be low due to the approach of a forecast central US upper anticyclone (see above discussion about possible Caribbean development for the expected origin for the anticyclone).
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 9) CMC Model Run...
** No Atlantic tropical development shown in the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jun 9) ECMWF Model Run...
** No Atlantic tropical development shown in the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jun 9) GFS Model Run...
**Cold front moves offshore of eastern US at 120 hours… tropical cyclone formation at tail end of front near 31.5N-77.5W at 144 hours… moves west-southwest toward northeast Florida coast at 168 hours.
**At 156 hours… tropical low pressure develops in the southern Caribbean… development suggested in long range.
1200Z (Jun 9) NAVGEM Model Run...
** Tropical low becomes defined over Honduras at 102 hours… moves across northern Guatemala and into southeast Mexico through 120 hours… moves northwest into the western Bay of Campeche at 138 hours… makes landfall in northern Veracruz province at 168 hours