MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #123
*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...UPDATE... SATURDAY OCTOBER 8 2022 2:07 AM EDT...
The latest data from NHC aircraft reconnaissance indicates Julia has strengthened to 60 mph maximum sustained winds. If current trends continue... will release a special update to increase the intensity forecast for Julia later today.
...SATURDAY OCTOBER 8 2022 1:50 AM EDT...
Tropical Depression Thirteen has strengthened into Tropical Storm Julia in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This system has potential to bring significant hurricane impacts to the east coast of Nicaragua by Sunday... with what remains of this system potentially spreading impacts across Honduras... El Salvador... southern Guatemala... Chiapas... and Oaxaca through day five. See Julia section below for additional information on this developing situation. It is quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.
TROPICAL STORM JULIA... As expected... tropical depression thirteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Julia on Friday after departing northern Colombia and reaching the more open south-central Caribbean waters. On Friday morning and afternoon the tropical storm began an initial more northward angle in its westward track while seeming to be influenced by a gyre of low surface pressure seen in satellite pictures offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Based on a review of satellite pictures over the last few days... I speculate the western gyre may be associated with the remnants of a surface trough of low pressure that was previously offshore of Honduras that was previously tagged as area of interest #37 on this blog... during birdseye view post #121 a couple of days ago. However Julia has been in a light northerly shear environment courtesy of a persistent northern Caribbean upper ridge axis which has kept the strongest thunderstorm activity weighted toward the south side of the circulation... and by Friday evening Julia's surface circulation took a corresponding southward consolidation. In addition Julia's more dominant surface inflow and upper outflow appears to have defeated the adjacent tropical low pressure gyre to the west... leaving Julia to now continue straight west under the influence of the building surface ridge over the United States. The end result is Julia is slightly north and west of my previous forecast track and my updated one is adjusted accordingly. After Julia moves into Central America from Nicaragua and by 72+ hours... an amplified western Canada upper trough is expected to support a sprawling frontal cyclone that will weaken the west side of the steering surface ridge... resulting in Julia's westward track slowing down and bending more north. My updated forecast track... which has the aforementioned northward adjustment... still moves Julia's center into the eastern Pacific basin but now along the coast of Central America and southeastern Mexico instead of just offshore of the coast. The global model consensus and NHC forecast... which previously was north of this solution perhaps while giving some credence to the aforementioned adjacent low pressure gyre to the west (which has dissipated as of late)... is now trending southward toward the eastern Pacific basin idea. In the long range (5+ days)... the surface ridge weakness associated with the forecast sprawling North American frontal cyclone is currently expected to be too far north to aggressively steer Julia... however perhaps could be enough to drift what is left of Julia northward back into the Atlantic Basin via the Bay of Campeche. In other words it is conceivable that Julia takes an unusual track that allows it to go into the eastern Pacific basin... then return back to the Atlantic basin... only time will tell if this unusual scenario actually comes to fruition. Note Julia will retain its Atlantic name should any crossover into the eastern Pacific basin occur... therefore I will continue to forecast Julia on this blog in such a scenario.
Regarding intensity... it appears the strong thunderstorm activity of Julia continues to generate a local scale warm core upper-level high pressure anticyclone that both supports Julia's outflow in all quadrants of its circulation and wards off the effects of northerly shear imparted by the northern Caribbean upper ridge axis. More disconcerting is strong central thunderstorm bursts that continue to overtake the center of Julia's circulation on the latest infrared satellite pictures... which could very well be organizing into a central dense overcast feature that helps Julia's intensity take off in an upward trend. Therefore despite Julia being a little behind my prior intensity forecast... my updated intensity forecast is nudged upward and calls for Julia to make landfall on the east coast of Nicaragua as a mid-range category 2 hurricane just after 24 hours. Due to this potential landfall intensity along the current and expected brisk westward track... I continue to forecast Julia to maintain its tropical cyclone status while heading into the eastern Pacific basin. For the eastern Pacific part of the forecast... this system will remain under the low shear/upper outflow of tropical upper ridging and be over warm waters. However the northward-nudged track forecast increases the land interaction with western Central America and southeastern Mexico... and so my updated long-range intensity forecast is correspondingly nudged downward.
Regarding impacts to land areas:
(1) I recommend that interests along the east coast of Nicaragua continue preparing for potentially severe hurricane force wind and coastal storm surge to arrive by Sunday morning. Inland areas across Nicaragua should also prepare for tropical storm force winds with some damage potential to arrive by Sunday evening. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding and mudslide potential is another hazard to consider.
(2) There is potential for heavy rainfall... with flash flood potential... to spread across southern Honduras... El Salvador... southern Guatemala... and the Mexican provinces of Chiapas and Oaxaca during the early to mid part of this upcoming week. Based on the emerging track forecast consensus... northern Honduras is now included in the heavy rainfall risk. Gusty winds along coastal El Salvador... the south-facing eastern Pacific coast of Guatemala... and the Gulf of Tehuantepec coast of Mexico cannot be ruled out... especially if Julia crosses over into the eastern Pacific while maintaining tropical cyclone status.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Oct 8)...45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the south-central Caribbean Sea at 12.8N-76.1W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 9)...100 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered east of Nicaragua at 12.8N-81W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 10)...50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over norhwestern Nicaragua at 12.8N-86W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 11)...35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered over the eastern Pacific coast of Central America at the El Salvador/Guatemala border at 14N-90W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 12)...45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered offshore of the Oaxaca province of Mexico and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 15.2N-94.5W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 13)...Remnant low centered over north-central Oaxaca at 17.2N-96W
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Oct 7) CMC Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Julia... makes landfall on the east-central coast of Nicaragua at 48 hours as a potential hurricane... weakens to an inland remnant low over southern Honduras at 72 hours... weakens further to a remnant trough that shifts into the southwestern Bay of Campeche through 120 hours.
1200Z (Oct 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Julia... makes landfall on the east-central coast of Nicaragua at 48 hours as a top-end tropical storm after which time the landfall weakens it to a remnant low... remnant low located on the eastern Pacific coast of El Salvador at 72 hours... remnant low weakens to a trough that moves into southeastern Mexico by 120 hours... north end of remnant trough re-organizes into a western Gulf of Mexico surface low near 25N-95.5W at 144 hours... while accelerating eastward surface low regains weak tropical storm status in the central Gulf of Mexico near 27N-87W at 168 hours.
1800Z (Oct 7) GFS Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Julia... makes landfall on the east-central coast of Nicaragua at 36 hours as a potential hurricane... weakens to an inland remnant low over west-central Nicaragua at 48 hours... remnant low loses definition over the eastern Pacific coast of El Salvador at 66 hours within a broad low pressure area supported by the outflow tropical upper ridge in the region.
**The broad tropical low pressure that Julia dissipates within at 66 hours organizes into a pair of circulations by 96 hours (one of the eastern Pacific near 11.5N-94W and a second in the Bay of Campeche near 19N-94W)... northern Bay of Campeche circulation organizes into a tropical depression near 20.8N-95.5W by 120 hours.
1800Z (Oct 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Julia... makes landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua at 42 hours as a potential hurricane... weakens to an inland remnant low over central Honduras at 60 hours... remnant low continues west-northwest into the southwestern Bay of Campeche by 108 hours while a competing tropical low pressure materializes to the south in the eastern Pacific... by 126 hours the remnant low of Julia and competing eastern Pacific circulation dissipate
**Tropical wave emerges from west coast of Africa at 132 hours... organizes into offshore tropical low near 9.8N-17W at 144 hours... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10.2N-18.8W at 156 hours... strengthening tropical cyclone located near 10.5N-20.8W at 168 hours