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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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Writer's pictureNCHurricane2009
Aug 20, 20212 min read

MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #85A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...FRIDAY AUGUST 20 2021 9:14 AM EDT...

Satellite image of Hurricane Grace taken at 1230Z:

Grace has re-acquired hurricane strength in the southwest Gulf of Mexico under a favorable upper atmospheric setup (low shear and outflow beneath vast upper ridging) and over warm waters… and is already measured by aircraft recon to have 85 mph maximum sustained winds. This special update is to acknowledge that the hurricane will likely make landfall as at least a top-end category 1 hurricane with 95 mph maximum sustained winds. If an organized core develops… rapid strengthening and category 2 strength cannot be ruled out. Interests in Veracruz should have finished preparing for Grace by now. If you like in or near the communities of Naranjos… Tuxpan… Tecolutla… and Nautla… be prepared to shelter indoors by tonight due to potentially damaging hurricane force winds stronger than previously forecast… and if you live at the coast be sure you have a plan ready to move further inland in the coming hours as the potential for a stronger coastal storm surge is increasing. The potential for some wind damage inland is increasing across northern Puebla due to the higher forecast landfall intensity… and the potential for gusty winds may spread as far west as Tlaxcala and eastern Hidalgo.


For more information on where Grace is expected to dump heavy rains and cause flood potential.. and also Henri who is also expected to impact parts of the northeast US… refer to full update #85 available on the home page of this site.

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