top of page
Home: Text


Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

Home: Text
Home: Blog2
  • Writer's pictureNCHurricane2009


*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...MONDAY MAY 31 2021 8:30 PM EDT...

The south end of the upper trough that was offshore of the northwestern US a week ago forecasted earlier in birdseye view post #6...becoming cut-off into a western Atlantic upper vortex located offshore of south Florida due to the strength of the current central and eastern US deep-layer ridge. The eastern divergence zone of the upper vortex is producing thunderstorms over Cuba...the western Bahamas...and adjacent waters. At the surface is the tail end of the cold front associated with the upper trough...with no current signs of an organized spin on ASCAT passes of surface wind.

As we kick off the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season in the next 24 hours...will be monitoring this area to see if an organized surface tropical feature emerges with the support of the upper vortex’s peripheral divergence. Currently none of the computer models shows this. If anything forms in the would be guided more west toward the Florida peninsula as the surface layer of the eastern US deep-layer ridge is bridging with the Atlantic subtropical surface ridge. Anything that forms toward 72 hours will be guided more northwest toward the southeastern US coastline as the eastern US deep-layer ridge becomes eroded by the current western/central US upper trough.

23 views0 comments


bottom of page