MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #64
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY JULY 29 2021 10:35 PM EDT...
Satellite image as of 2350Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1800Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 1800Z:
The cold front that has recently crossed the Great Lakes region of the United States is currently producing a band of strong thunderstorms from Missouri to West Virginia ad of this writing as it continues to shift southeast toward the waters offshore of the eastern United States…and will reach those waters by 48 hours (2 days). Tropical development will be possible in the 3 to 4 day window as the tail end of the front decays beneath an offshore extension of the current southern United States sprawling upper ridge creating an environment of low shear and upper outflow. However I have not declared an area of interest for this frontal zone at this time as the models (except for the ECMWF) have not been showing tropical development. Should the frontal zone continue to produce widespread thunderstorms when it moves offshore…and should the ECMWF continue to forecast development and/or other models join in…then I will add the front as an area of interest.
Elsewhere…conditions in the low-latitudes of the tropical Atlantic will soon return to a more favorable state as the upward-motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is shifting east into the Atlantic basin (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). All global computer models agree on showing lowering surface pressures in the eastern tropical Atlantic over the next week...perhaps a signature of vigorous tropical waves of low pressure emerging from Africa and being aided by the MJO's arrival and also the outflow and divergence of the eastern tropical Atlantic upper ridge axis forecast to perist over the next several days. Therefore an area of interest may emerge in the eastern tropical Atlantic over the course of the next week.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...no tropical cyclone formation shown in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days (168 hours)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...
**Cold front currently over the Great Lakes reaches the west Atlantic by 48 hours…possible tropical development near 40N-67.5W at 96 hours…moves rapidly northeast and transitions into a non-tropical frontal cyclone southeast of Newfoundland by 120 hours.
1800Z GFS Model Run...
**Tropical low pressure shown to form in the eastern Atlantic near 11N-26W at 120 hours…shown to be stationary through 168 hours.
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...no tropical cyclone formation shown in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days (168 hours)