MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #5 (Weekend Edition)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY MAY 23 2021 5:09 PM EDT...
Satellite image as of 1930Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1200Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 1200Z:
Welcome to what I call my “weekend edition” posts...where I put together the entire post on using only mobile phone tools instead of a laptop computer. This will allow me to execute these posts while on the go during weekend activities.
After gaining fully tropical characteristics this morning...Ana in the open northwest Atlantic has lost its thunderstorm core and has recently weakened to a tropical depression. See Ana section below for additional details.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA...While Ana did gain full tropical characteristics overnight due to the uptick in activity mentioned in special update #4A (warm core upper outflow driven by thunderstorm latent heat release)....the uptick in thunderstorms and outflow did not last long enough to strengthen Ana above 45 mph max sustained winds. In fact Ana has lost its thunderstorms since sunrise and had thus weakened to a tropical depression as of 5 PM EDT. This maybe due to the cut-off overhead upper vortex weakening to a slightly warmer upper trough as it had been cut-off from cold air for so long...with the warming upper air temps reducing the instability (upper air 200
mb height over Ana has recently risen/warmed to 1200 dekameters...would like to see heights below 1200 dekameters for instability with the low-20 deg C water temps Ana is over).
Ana is moving east-northeast out ahead of a cold front approaching from eastern Canada...and will be absorbed by the front in the next 24 hours. My forecast track is again adjusted north and east due to the current position and heading of Ana.
For Bermuda...coastal sea swells generated by Ana have come to an end.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1800Z May 23)...35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered at 37.5N-57.7W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z May 24)...Absorbed by cold front near 39.5N-52W