*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY JULY 11 2021 10:50 PM EDT...
Satellite image as of 0200Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1800Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 1800Z:
The low-latitudes of the tropical Atlantic have become less favorable for development in recent days due to suppressing upper vorticity in the western and central tropical Atlantic as well as dry Saharan air. In the mid-latitudes…models have come into agreement that the current east Canada shortwave upper trough will leave behind the tail end of its surface cold front in the northwest Atlantic…to the northeast of Bermuda…in about 3 days. Water temps in the region are running at a warm 26 deg C…and upper-level winds could become conducive for tropical development as the current southeast US upper ridging and north cell of the western North America upper ridge will move offshore together and create a large upper anticyclonic ridge in the northwest Atlantic with low shear and upper outflow. Therefore the tail end of the aforementioned surface front could evolve into an area of interest for tropical development to the northeast of Bermuda in the coming days.