BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments via Disqus on Weather Underground at www.wunderground.com/cat6. You can see my Disqus feed at this link for my latest comments. Feel free to reply to me with your disqus account or e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #43A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...UPDATE…THURSDAY JULY 8 2021 7:45 AM EDT...

Elsa’s flash flooding heavy rainfall….coastal gusty winds and surf…and tornado risk now located across northeastern South Carolina and spreading across central and eastern North Carolina. The persisting strong thunderstorm mass of the storm means that Elsa could now maintain tropical storm status during all of today…the coastal Carolinas should have already prepared for tropical storm conditions by now regardless. I recommend preparations for gusty winds and coastal sea swells from Virginia to Delaware to be completed by this morning…and from New Jersey to Massachusetts to be completed by this afternoon. For more on Elsa…it’s expected impact across the eastern US and Atlantic Canada…and a check on the rest of the Atlantic tropics…see birdseye view post #43 on the home page of this site…also available at this link.


Here are some of the latest South Carolina (SC) and North Carolina (NC) National weather service station reports of wind (in mph). These observations verify the strongest wind is in a small area east of the center and near the coast (Charleston to Myrtle Beach) and will soon be upon the southern North Carolina coast. Where surface friction is higher…inland areas are seeing much less wind (check the list below from Orangeburg and down) and so primarily the heavy rain and risk of tornadoes (if east of the center) will be the concerns. Although note Florence had a gust to 45 mph in very heavy rain this morning…so wind gusts inland in heavy downpours cannot be ruled out.

**Charleston SC…sustained 25…gust 41 (4:56 AM EDT)

**Georgetown SC…sustained 15…gust 36 (6:55 AM EDT)

**Myrtle Beach SC…sustained 26…gust 39 (now)

**Wilmington NC…sustained 13…gust 20 (now)

**Morehead City NC…sustained 8 (now)

**Orangeburg SC…sustained 13 (now)

**Columbia SC…sustained 5 (now)

**Manning & Sumter SC…sustained 14…gust 24 (5:56 AM EDT)

**Florence SC…sustained 23…gust 45 (5:53 AM EDT)

**Fayetteville NC…sustained 13 (now)


...THURSDAY JULY 8 2021 3:37 AM EDT...

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Elsa as of 0651Z as Elsa maintains strength while centered inland near the eastern Georgia/South Carolina border:

Elsa’s flash flooding heavy rainfall….coastal gusty winds and surf…and tornado risk now located across eastern and central South Carolina. The persisting strong thunderstorm mass of the storm means that Elsa could now maintain tropical storm status during all of today…the coastal Carolinas should have already prepared for tropical storm conditions by now anyway. For more on Elsa…it’s expected impact across the eastern US and Atlantic Canada…and a check on the rest of the Atlantic tropics…see birdseye view post #43 on the home page of this site…also available at this link.


Here are some of the latest Georgia (GA) and South Carolina (SC) National weather service station reports of wind (in mph). These observations verify the strongest wind is in a small area east of the center and near the coast (Savannah to Beaufort) and will later be spreading up the South Carolina coast (Charleston to Myrtle Beach). Where surface friction is higher…inland areas are seeing much less wind (check the list below from Orangeburg and down) and so primarily the heavy rain and risk of tornadoes (if east of the center) will be the concerns:

**Savannah GA…sustained 13…gust 35 (now)

**Beaufort SC…sustained 26…gust 39 (12:35 AM EDT)

**Charleston SC…sustained 18…gust 28 (1:56 AM EDT)

**Georgetown SC…sustained 10…gust 16 (now)

**Myrtle Beach SC…sustained 14…gust 24 (now)

**Orangeburg SC…sustained 7…gust 20 (1:53 AM EDT)

**Columbia SC…sustained 6 (now)

**Augusta GA…sustained 12….gust 22 (now)

**Manning & Sumter SC…sustained 10

**Florence SC…sustained 6

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