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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 30 2021 9:03 PM EDT...

Satellite image of vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic now designated as potential tropical cyclone five by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)…taken at 0000Z:

A pair of vigorous tropical waves is en route to pass through the Caribbean Sea over the next few days…one currently passing through the Lesser Antilles…and another more organized wave to the east of over central tropical Atlantic. The NHC as of 5 PM EDT earlier today has designated the eastern wave as potential tropical cyclone five as it is expected to become the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season…and mainly in order to allow for the issuance of tropical storm watches for parts of the Lesser Antilles.

**I recommend that interests in Tobago… Grenada… Barbados… St Vincent and the Grenadines… St Lucia… and Martinique begin preparing for tropical storm conditions…with possible hurricane-force conditions…arriving by late Friday and into Saturday. Except for Tobago and Grenada…the islands in this list are under a tropical storm watch as of this writing.

**Tropical storm watches are raised as far north as Guadeloupe…but not including Dominica as of this writing. Dominica and Guadeloupe may experience tropical storm conditions late Friday and into Saturday if the circulation of the potential tropical cyclone consolidates further north.

**The remainder of the Lesser Antilles to the north…and Trinidad to the south…may also experience heavy rain or gusty winds from the outer bands of this system

**Interests in Haiti…Jamaica…the Cayman Islands…and Cuba are encouraged to watch this system very carefully…with arrival expected by early next week. Some models runs have this system moving quiet quickly and arriving in this region by late this weekend (late Saturday and into Sunday) as portrayed by the NHC official forecast as of this writing.

**For more info on this system…refer to the area of interest #2 section in post #36…available on the home page of this site. This post also contains information on activity elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.

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