MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #143
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…SATURDAY OCTOBER 23 2021 3:05 PM EDT...
Satellite image as of 1230Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 0000Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 0000Z:
Waves of upper vorticity to cross the United States from the northeastern Pacific are not expected to be amplified enough to support subtropical development once they reach the western Atlantic in a few days.
Elsewhere… some recent model runs suggest a strong tropical wave of low pressure will emerge from Africa and enter the eastern tropical Atlantic in about four days. However upper vorticity in the eastern Atlantic is expected to persist while re-enforced by pockets of upper vorticity to be deposited by the current North Atlantic and eastern United States upper troughs. This upper vorticity is likely to make conditions for this wave’s development hostile while inducing westerly wind shear.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z CMC Model Run…
**Tropical wave emerges from Africa at 108 hours… evolves into a tropical low near 10N-30W just after 168 hours.
0000Z ECMWF Model Run...
**Tropical wave emerges from Africa between 96 and 120 hours…located near 11.5N-32W as a broad tropical low at 168 hours
1200Z GFS Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
0600Z NAVGEM Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)