*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…TUESDAY OCTOBER 19 2021 6:50 PM EDT...
As previously forecast… an upper ridge has solidified across the Caribbean Sea… the outflow of which has begun to increase showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean… Nicaragua… and Honduras. However at present… computer models continue favor showing development in the eastern Pacific instead of the western Caribbean.
It is quiet elsewhere across the Atlantic tropics.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z GFS Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
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