MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #138
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…SUNDAY OCTOBER 17 2021 1:30 AM EDT...
Satellite image as of 0440Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1800Z (Saturday Oct 16):
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 0000Z:
For the first time in several days… there are no areas of immediate concern for tropical development in the Atlantic basin.
While showers and thunderstorms are widespread in the eastern tropical Atlantic due to upper divergence in the region… westerly shear on the south side of eastern Atlantic upper vorticity is precluding tropical development here. The current central Atlantic upper trough is forecast to leave behind additional upper vorticity in the eastern tropical Atlantic in the days ahead… therefore extending the pattern of unfavorable westerly shear here.
The current eastern Caribbean upper ridge is forecast to expand across much of the Caribbean once the current cold core upper vorticity over south Florida diminishes while remaining cut-off from high latitude cold air. The outflow of this upper ridge may lower surface pressures in the region and make conditions more conducive for tropical development. However at present… various current long range computer model solutions favor tropical development in the eastern Pacific instead of the Caribbean.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Oct 16) CMC Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z (Oct 16) ECMWF Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
0000Z GFS Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z (Oct 16) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Tropical wave currently at 36W longitude develops into a tropical storm near 7.5N-51.5W by 138 hours