*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…FRIDAY OCTOBER 15 2021 10:30 AM EDT...
Satellite image as of 0540Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 0000Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 0000Z:
See area of interest section below for an update on the tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic accelerating east into the central Atlantic. It is quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.
AREA OF INTEREST #1… The surface low pressure area in the western Atlantic continues eastward with the surface ridge weakness induced by the upper trough that has recently entered the northwest Atlantic from southeastern Canada. The upper trough is also shearing the thunderstorm activity to the east of the surface low… therefore tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated. The surface low is likely to transition into a non-tropical frontal low supported by the eastern divergence zone of the upper trough as the trough and surface low move together rapidly into the open central Atlantic. This is my final statement on this disturbance on this blog as it is also being cancelled from the NHC tropical weather outlook as of this morning.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z CMC Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
0000Z ECMWF Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
0600Z GFS Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
0600Z NAVGEM Model Run...
**Tropical wave currently at 25W longitude develops into a tropical storm while crossing the southern Lesser Antilles by 168 hours.