*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...FRIDAY JUNE 4 2021 8:06 PM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics are currently calm due to the presence of dry Saharan air in the eastern tropical Atlantic and widespread westerly shear. In approximately one week...some of the latest model runs suggest that the current western Atlantic to Caribbean cold core upper vorticity will remain cut-off from mid-latitude cold air...resulting in dissipation and replacement by warm core upper ridging with less shear and upper outflow more conducive for the lowering of surface pressures and tropical development across Central America and the Caribbean. For example the 1200Z CMC model run from this afternoon suggested eastern Pacific development adjacent to Central America and SE Mexico around 168 hours...and the 1800Z GFS suggested a broad lowering of surface pressures across the Caribbean and Central America at approximately 150 hours. The 1200Z NAVGEM suggested the formation of a tropical surface low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea by 168 hours. Due to the general inaccuracy of model runs in the long range...I have not highlighted the Caribbean Sea as an area of interest at this time.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z GFS Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...Tropical low pressure shown to form offshore of eastern Honduras at 168 hours