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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...FRIDAY AUGUST 21 2020 12:53 AM EDT...

The following is a special update on the vigorous tropical wave of low pressure over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Colorized infrared satellite shows that the southern thunderstorm activity has continued to become more concentrated and better organized...and based on the current satellite appearance I estimate the lowest pressure of the tropical wave is in the vicinity of 9N-21.5W. This has caused me to nudged my forecast track points a bit southward once again. Thru the 120 hour forecast period...a steady westward track across the eastern tropical Atlantic under the influence of the steering Atlantic subtropical ridge is expected. This tropical wave will also stay below the axis of tropical upper ridging prevailing across the Atlantic...which will provide a low shear and upper outflow environment conducive to development. Given the current organizational trend continuing...I have raised my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation over the next five days to a high 70% in this special update. For the longer range after the 120-hour forecast period...should this system develop...I am afraid the modeling does not show any mid-latitude frontal systems capable of weakening the steering Atlantic subtropical ridge...and so we may have to deal with another tropical system approaching land areas after tropical depressions thirteen and fourteen...we shall see.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 22)...50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 10N-25W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 23)...60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 10.5N-30W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 24)...70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 11N-35W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 25)...70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 11.5N-40W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 26)...70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 12N-45W)

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