*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY MAY 20 2020 11:00 AM EDT...
Tropical Storm Arthur has transitioned into a remnant non-tropical frontal low pressure system...see Arthur section below for details. With no additional tropical or subtropical cyclone activity expected in the Atlantic in the short-term...this is my final birdseye view post until the official start of the hurricane season on June 1...unless activity returns to the Atlantic before then.
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...Shortly after yesterday's birdseye view post...Tropical Storm Arthur was declared a non-tropical low pressure system along the northwestern Atlantic frontal boundary it is sliding eastward along. The frontal boundary is supported by divergence out ahead of an upper trough that has now swung southeastward from the southeastern Canadian coast and into the north Atlantic...and this divergence was also supporting the remnant low pressure of Arthur. However as forecast...this fast-moving upper trough has left Arthur behind and has produced a new frontal low pressure system in the north Atlantic west of the Azores. As these features continue eastward away from Arthur's remnant low pressure...the western Atlantic and eastern Canada surface ridges will merge and send Arthur's remnants on a south or southwest drift to pass over or just west of Bermuda in the next 24 hours. The remnant circulation of Arthur is expected to weaken to dissipation as it will not have any supportive upper divergence to maintain it as a non-tropical entity...and water temperatures in the vicinity of Bermuda are running too cool to allow the remnants to redevelop as a tropical entity. Thus direct impacts to Bermuda (winds, rains) are expected to be insignificant...and any coastal sea swells generated by Arthur should fade in the next 24 hours.