MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #83
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY AUGUST 6 2020 5:15 PM EDT...
See area of interest section below for a final statement on the surface low pressure center in the western Atlantic that was being monitored for development.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...The mid-level trough of low pressure in the western Atlantic in the vicnity of 30N-70W has developed a weak surface low pressure spin now in the vicinity of 29N-71W. This disturbance remains stalled while jammed between the Atlantic subtropical ridge to the northeast and North American surface ridge over the Great Lakes region to the northwest. Although the disturbance has remained in a low vertical shear environment beneath a western Atlantic upper ridge...it has not developed any organized thunderstorm activity and will soon be exposed to westerly shear to be driven by a forecast south fracture of the upper trough currently over eastern North America. The latest GFS model run shows the south fracture upper trough progressing more slowly through the western Atlantic...which will prolong the exposure to shear. Therefore tropical development here is no longer expected...this is my final statement on this disturbance on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 7)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 29N-72W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...For area of interest #1...no tropical cyclone formation shown.
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...For area of interest #1...no tropical cyclone formation shown. Elsewhere...tropical wave of low pressure from western Africa shown to become a tropical low pressure near 10.5N-39.5W in 120 hours...possible tropical cyclone development near 12N-49W in 168 hours.
1200Z GFS Model Run...For area of interest #1...no tropical cyclone formation shown.
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...For area of interest #1...no tropical cyclone formation shown.