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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...TUESDAY JULY 21 2020 7:20 AM EDT...

The following is a special update regarding the tropical low pressure spin located in the open Atlantic ocean...referred to as area of interest #3 in birdseye view post #66 and circled in yellow in the above image. The thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized overnight...therefore I am increasing short-term odds of tropical cyclone formation to 90%...with steadily decreasing odds thereafter as a much larger tropical wave emerging from the west coast of Africa to the east is pushing a large swath of dry saharan air layer southwestward toward this disturbance. At this time I do not mention potential impacts from this disturbance to the southern Lesser Antilles as it is unclear whether this system will weaken from the dry air before getting to the islands in a few days.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 22)...90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 10N-42W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 23)...80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 10N-47W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 24)...50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 10N-52W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 25)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east-southeast of the southern Lesser Antilles 10N-57W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 26)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea just north of the Venezuela coast near 11N-62W)

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