MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #43
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY JUNE 25 2020 10:13 AM EDT...
The surface frontal zone currently draped across the southeastern United States will soon develop a surface frontal low pressure...which will be crossing the northwestern Atlantic warm Gulf stream waters on a path similar to what Tropical Storm Dolly took by 36 to 72 hours according to the suite of computer model runs in the model summary below...while supported by a shortwave upper trough to eject from the upper vortex over eastern Canada. Because the shortwave upper trough is not expected to stall as a cut-off upper vortex...this system is not expected to acquire tropical characteristics like Dolly did.
Another shortwave upper trough and surface frontal system currently moving across the northwestern United States will enter the western Atlantic by next week. The upper ridge out ahead of this front...currently spanning the western United States and eastern Pacific waters offshore of Baja California...will be dominating the western Atlantic with low shear and upper outflow in the long term. Therefore it is possible a tropical cyclone forms along this front and below the supportive upper ridge at a location between Cape Hatteras North Carolina and Bermuda as the ECMWF...CMC...and GFS models are currently suggesting in the timeframe that is about 6 days away. If this model consensus continues into tomorrow...will declare a new area of interest for tropical development in my next full blog post tomorrow.
And finally in the western Gulf of Mexico...thunderstorm activity offshore of the east-facing Mexico coast is supported by the outflow of an upper ridge over the far eastern Pacific and western Gulf of Mexico. Computer models are not developing this disturbance...perhaps from the dry saharan air outbreak that lies just to the east. Therefore not considering this feature an area of interest for tropical development at this time...regardless the disturbance could bring moisture and enhanced thunderstorm activity to northeast Mexico and southeastern Texas over the next day or so.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z CMC Model Run...Frontal low consolidates near 38N-70W by 36 hours...SE of Newfoundland by 72 hours. Next front swings into west Atlantic by 96 hours...triggering possible tropical cyclone formation northwest of Bermuda near 36N-66W by 144 hours
0000Z ECMWF Model Run...Frontal low consolidates near 39N-65W by 48 hours...east of Newfoundland by 72 hours. Next front swings into west Atlantic by 120 hours...triggering possible tropical cyclone formation just east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina by 144 hours.
0600Z GFS Model Run...Weak frontal low near 39N-62W by 54 hours...south of Newfoundland by 90 hours. Next front swings into west Atlantic by 96 hours...triggering possible tropical cyclone formation east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina near 35.5N-73W by 156 hours.
0600Z NAVGEM Model Run...Data error