MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #196A (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 2 2020 10:00 PM EDT...
Satellite Image as of 0230Z: (red indicates an active tropical cyclone of remnants of a tropical cyclone...green indicates an area of interest currently in the NHC outlook...yellow indicates an area of interest currently not in the NHC outlook):
The following is a special update on the two areas of interest that were previously being monitored for development in full update #196 issued last night. Tropical development is no longer expected in these areas....and these are my final statements on both disturbances on this blog. My next full update is scheduled for tomorrow...prior to which I will be checking models for any other tropical development risk. If none is found...the next full update will be my last regularly scheduled update as the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ended on November 30.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...For the northeastern Atlantic deep-layered low pressure system...consisting of an upper vortex and surface cyclone...thunderstorm activity has decreased as the upper vortex warms to stabilizing temperatures while remaining cut-off from high latitude cold air. Subtropical cyclone formation is not expected as these trends will continue and as the surface cyclone continues to weaken below the center of the upper vortex where there is a lack of upper divergence.
AREA OF INTEREST #2...For the southern Caribbean tropical disturbance supported by the outflow of the anticyclonic center of the western Atlantic upper ridge...the area of cyclonic turning has shifted westward closer to the southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica coasts under the steering influence of a southeastern US surface ridge that has built in the wake of the eastern US frontal cyclone (frontal cyclone now over southeast Canada). The NHC TAFB surface analysis as of 1800Z agrees by showing a surface trough of low pressure in the area of observed cyclonic turning. As this disturbance continues toward the southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica coasts...time to develop over water is running out...and tropical cyclone formation of this disturbance is not expected. Should this disturbance maintain thunderstorms at landfall...locally heavy rainfall will be possible in Nicaragua and Costa Rica over the next day or so.