MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #140B (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY OCTOBER 5 2020 11:45 PM EDT...
Satellite image of Hurricane Delta as of 0330Z:
Tropical Storm Delta continues to intensify rapidly in the western Caribbean Sea...and is now a hurricane. This special update is to increase my short-term intensity forecast which now brings Delta to a major hurricane (category 3+) in the next 24 hours...and to also adjust the short-term track forecast westward as Delta’s track had a west-southwest track all afternoon while reforming closer to its strongest thunderstorm activity...but Delta is finally moving northwest tonight as the strongest thunderstorms are now symmetric around the center. This westward adjusted track and compact size of Delta removes the threat of hurricane force winds for the Cayman Islands...but should the track wobble back eastward Grand Cayman Island could still get tropical storm force winds in the next several hours...but a coastal storm surge remains possible for all of the islands. The adjusted track reduced the threat of hurricane force winds in western Cuba for Wednesday...but increases the threat of hurricane winds in northeastern Quintana Roo province of Mexico where a hurricane warning has been hoisted. If Delta remains compact in size and follows the forecast track below exactly...the worst wind could pass between Quintana Roo and western Cuba....but any changes in the storm size or any east or west wobbles could bring rather destructive major hurricane force winds to the west tip of Cuba or parts of Quintana Roo...so use tomorrow be prepared for the worst case scenario here! Coastal storm surges are possible in the region as well regardless of the exact track.
Long term track and intensity are kept the same for now as upper-level southwesterly winds expected by that time should cap the intensity by inducing shear and prevent the track from moving west of 90W longitude. Although the intensity at 72+ hours may seem weaker than previous special update #140A...remember that the forecast below is for 0000Z instead of 1800Z...so 72 hours represents Delta beginning to weaken from shear after 1800Z Oct 8...and 96 hours represents Delta weakening inland after it makes landfall potentially as a category 2 after 1800Z Oct 9. See home page bulletins for more on what to expect for the US Gulf coast landfall forecast for Friday.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Oct 6)...80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Caribbean Sea just southwest of Jamaica at 16.8N-80.3W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 7)...120 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the northwestern Caribbean Sea at 19N-84W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 8)...140 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at 22.8N-86.5W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 9)...130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the central Gulf of Mexico at 26.2N-90W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Oct 10)...80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over southern Mississippi at 31N-89.2W
IOH 120 Hr Forecacst (0000Z Oct 11)...Remnant frontal low pressure centered over south-central Tennessee at 35.2N-87W