*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 26 2020 11:17 PM EDT...
The current upper vortex over central Canada and upper trough fragment currently left behind over the central United States will help to coax higher latitude upper trough energy into central North America over the next few days. This upper trough energy will drive the tail end of a surface frontal zone toward the western Caribbean Sea over the next week. The tail end of the front may decay into a surface trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean capable of tropical development...especially as the upper trough regime over central North America relaxes which would allow a more favorable tropical upper ridge to build over the western Caribbean as some of the long range model runs indicate. If these model trends persist...will consider adding the aforementioned frontal zone as an area of interest for tropical development in the coming days.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run....No tropical cyclone formation shown through 7 days (168 hours)
1800Z GFS Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 7 days (168 hours)
1800Z NAVGEM Model Run...Tropical cyclone formation suggested over western Cuba by 7 days (168 hours)