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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...MONDAY SEPTEMBER 21 2020 11:59 PM EDT...

As of 11 PM EDT...the National Hurricane Center has assessed that Paulette has regained fully tropical status with 60 mph maximum sustained winds. The fully tropical status was based on a tight wind core at the center seen by an ASCAT satellite pass of surface winds (usually subtropical systems have max winds in a quadrant of the circulation rather than a fully tropical system where max winds are at the center). Because this system has seen strengthening with higher is probable the thunderstorms have developed a warm core outflow aiding in supporting the strength...but the outflow is below the 200 mb layer as there is upper vorticity above the storm at that layer.

It appears Paulette is now below the eastern divergence zone of said 200 mb upper vorticity which maybe why the thunderstorm activity has increased in the first place. I forecast Paulette’s thunderstorms...warm core outflow...and surface winds to fade with time while moving over increasingly cooler water...and by 48 hours I assume Paulette will lose it’s thunderstorms and tropical character entirely. However Paulette may still hang on to minimal tropical storm strength after losing tropical characteristics with the support of the upper divergence on the east side of the 200 mb upper vorticity. On a final note....these developments mean Madeira island is more likely to see gusty winds and heavy rain from Paulette by tomorrow night.

****** forecast. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (0000Z Sep 22)...60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Atlantic at 33.9N-25.3W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 23)...45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered just northwest of Madeira Island at 34N-17.5W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 24)...Remnant non tropical low pressure centered midway between Madeira Island and Portugal at 34N-12.5W

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