MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #109A (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2 2020 12:35 AM EDT...
Tropical Storm Nana continues to become better organized and stronger while moving into the western Caribbean Sea...this special update is to increase my intensity forecast over birdseye view post #109 from yesterday afternoon. The strengthening so far has been allowed while an approaching piece of upper vorticity to the northeast has not yet neared the tropical storm. The 11 PM EDT advisory discussion from the National Hurricane Center mentions northerly shear potentially disrupting Nana as it approaches landfall with Belize on Thursday...which would be induced by the approaching upper vorticity. So for now I flatten the intensity forecast in the 12 hours before landfall...but I am concerned about the possibility that Nana’s thunderstorm latent heat release may weaken the cold core upper vorticity and allow Nana to strengthen more than I forecasted below.
It should be noted that as Nana strengthens...the wind damage risk from hurricane force winds will increase for Belize...especially near where the center makes landfall. Interests in Belize and southern Quintana Roo should finish preparations for Nana by later today. The potential for tropical storm force winds inland for northern Guatemala and southeastern Campeche province is increasing for late Thursday and into Friday as Nana continues to strengthen.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Sep 2)...60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Caribbean Sea at 17N-80.9W
IOH 12 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 2)...70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered southwest of the Cayman Islands at 17N-83W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 3)...85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Caribbean Sea at 17N-85.5W
IOH 36 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 3)...85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane approaching landfall on the north coast of Belize at 17N-88W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 4)...40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the northwestern Guatemala/Mexico border at 17N-90.5W
IOH 60 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 4)...Remnant low pressure centered inland just south of the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico at 17N-93W