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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


Tropical Storm Nana continues to become better organized and stronger while moving into the western Caribbean Sea...this special update is to increase my intensity forecast over birdseye view post #109 from yesterday afternoon. The strengthening so far has been allowed while an approaching piece of upper vorticity to the northeast has not yet neared the tropical storm. The 11 PM EDT advisory discussion from the National Hurricane Center mentions northerly shear potentially disrupting Nana as it approaches landfall with Belize on Thursday...which would be induced by the approaching upper vorticity. So for now I flatten the intensity forecast in the 12 hours before landfall...but I am concerned about the possibility that Nana’s thunderstorm latent heat release may weaken the cold core upper vorticity and allow Nana to strengthen more than I forecasted below.

It should be noted that as Nana strengthens...the wind damage risk from hurricane force winds will increase for Belize...especially near where the center makes landfall. Interests in Belize and southern Quintana Roo should finish preparations for Nana by later today. The potential for tropical storm force winds inland for northern Guatemala and southeastern Campeche province is increasing for late Thursday and into Friday as Nana continues to strengthen.

****** forecast. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (0000Z Sep 2)...60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Caribbean Sea at 17N-80.9W

IOH 12 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 2)...70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered southwest of the Cayman Islands at 17N-83W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 3)...85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Caribbean Sea at 17N-85.5W

IOH 36 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 3)...85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane approaching landfall on the north coast of Belize at 17N-88W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 4)...40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the northwestern Guatemala/Mexico border at 17N-90.5W

IOH 60 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 4)...Remnant low pressure centered inland just south of the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico at 17N-93W

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