MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #191A (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY NOVEMBER 18 2019 9:09 PM EDT...
Showers and thunderstorms in association with a central Atlantic surface low pressure spin northeast of the Lesser Antilles have increased in intensity and organization while firing closer to the low pressure center. In addition the latest upper-level wind analysis suggests the overhead cold core upper trough in the region has weakened...perhaps suggesting the latest round of thunderstorms is producing enough latent heat to affect the upper trough. This is reducing the wind shear that was previously inhibiting tropical development and also decreasing the unfavorable convergence on the west side of the upper trough that was previously suppressing thunderstorms at the surface low pressure center. Albeit there is still some wind shear due to the impinging of upper southwesterlies ahead of upper troughs in the western Atlantic and eastern United States which is keeping the thunderstorms lopsided to the east side of the low pressure spin. However given the recent organization...it appears wind shear is still low enough for possible tropical cyclone formation in the next couple of days...therefore I am raising my peak odds of development to 75%...which is now above the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook. I have also nudged my forecast track southward based on the latest position of the surface low pressure. If current trends continue into tomorrow...I will be issuing a tropical cyclone formation forecast in my next full blog update.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 12 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 19)...70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 21N-61W)
IOH 36 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 20)...75% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 25N-61W)
IOH 60 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 21)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (absorbed by cold front near 29.5N-55W)