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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...MONDAY NOVEMBER 18 2019 2:17 PM EDT...

See area of interest sections below for areas being monitored for tropical development in the Atlantic basin.

AREA OF INTEREST #1...The surface trough of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic northeast of the Lesser Antilles has spun up into a closed surface low pressure spin...but the thunderstorm squalls remain biased to the east due to the presence of an upper trough in the area. The thunderstorm intensity of this disturbance has died down since special update #190A last evening...making it now unlikely that this disturbance will be able to produce enough thunderstorm latent heat release to weaken the cold core upper trough. Moreover as the surface low is beginning to move northwestward around the Atlantic subtropical ridge...the center of spin has moved beneath the unfavorable western convergence zone of the upper trough. Therefore I have lowered my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation from 50% to 40% since special update #190A. This is only a slight lowering of odds as this disturbance will move northwestward and then northward beneath an upper ridge axis to the northwest by 24 to 48 hours where shear will potentially be reduced and supportive upper outflow potentially increase. Odds of tropical cyclone formation are dropped to 0% by 72 hours as the upper trough currently moving into the eastern US is forecast to generate another surface frontal low in the western Atlantic in the wake of the frontal cyclone mentioned in area of interest #2...with this second frontal low absorbing this disturbance with its cold front.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 19)...40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 23N-61W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 20)...40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 26.5N-61W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 21)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (absorbed by cold front near 31N-55W)

AREA OF INTEREST #2...The frontal cyclone offshore of the eastern United States appears to have a more complex and broad structure while now supported by a vast area of upper divergence on the east side of its original parent upper trough and second larger upper trough approaching from the central and eastern United States. The increased complexity in the structure is apparent as the original center from yesterday has lost its identity to a second new cloud swirl that has formed to the west and is rapidly accelerating northeastward toward Nova Scotia under the influence of the second larger upper trough. The new cloud swirl is well-removed from the large cloud and thunderstorm bands to the north and east...therefore subtropical cyclone formation is not occurring. Even so...this system will bring sea swells to the eastern United States coast and Atlantic Canada coasts through Tuesday...and bring increasing gusty winds and heavy rains for the remainder of today and Tuesday from coastal Massachusetts to coastal Maine as well as Nova Scotia and Newfoundland...with some of these areas having a wintry mix of precipitation on the colder west side of the cyclone. This is my final statement on this cyclone on this blog as this cyclone has run out of time to acquire tropical characteristics as it is moving toward cooler waters.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 19)...0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (Nova Scotia near 45N-62.5W)

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