MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #187
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14 2019 5:43 PM EDT...
The eastern divergence zone of an upper trough currently in the central tropical Atlantic is producing a new surface trough of low pressure...as well as bands of cloudiness and showers displaced to the east of the surface trough. The south fracture of a frontal upper trough that has recently ejected from eastern North America is currently heading southeast into the central tropical Atlantic and is likely to increase the activity in the central tropical Atlantic with its eastern divergence zone as it becomes more amplified. The amplification of the frontal upper trough is expected to be induced by adjacent amplification of Caribbean upper ridging to occur from the warm sector of a forecast strong frontal low to form just offshore of the southeastern US coast (this frontal low is forecast to form with the support of the amplified upper trough currently heading into the eastern US). The CMC...Euro...and GFS models in the last 24 hours have backed off in the strength of a central tropical Atlantic surface low pressure expected to form from the amplifying frontal upper trough. Only the NAVGEM remains aggressive in the strength of this low pressure and even suggests tropical cyclone formation. When looking at the latest GFS model run...it appears the Caribbean upper ridging could amplify northeastward enough to drive the current eastern Atlantic upper trough southwestward and place any central tropical Atlantic low pressure in the unfavorable western convergence zone of that trough. Therefore I am not issuing any outlooks on tropical cyclone formation in the central tropical Atlantic at the present time.