MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #186
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 13 2019 2:53 PM EDT...
In response to a stronger divergence zone on the east side of a more amplified shortwave upper trough moving into the central tropical Atlantic...cloudiness and showers are redeveloping in the region. The amplification of the incoming shortwave upper trough is the result of adjacent Caribbean upper ridging amplifying in warm air advection ahead of the cold front currently entering the western Atlantic. This frontal zone and its supporting upper trough could become the focus for tropical development in a few days when it likewise amplifies and moves into the central tropical Atlantic due to additional amplification of Caribbean upper ridging caused by the warm sector of a strong frontal low forecast to form over or near the southeastern US coast (this frontal low is forecast to form when the shortwave upper troughs currently over the northwestern and southwestern US later phase together). The NAVGEM...CMC...Euro...and GFS models continue to agree that the frontal upper trough currently entering the western Atlantic in 5 to 6 days will support a surface low pressure with potential for tropical development with its eastern divergence zone when it later amplifies and enters the central tropical Atlantic as stated above. If this model convergence continues through tomorrow...I will be introducing the central tropical Atlantic as an area of interest for tropical cyclone development...issuing an outlook that contains probabilities for tropical cyclone formation.