MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #178
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 5 2019 6:53 PM EDT...
The surface trough of low pressure north of the Caribbean Islands and northeast of the Bahamas is merging with a cold front spreading into the western Atlantic. Although the surface trough is beneath the upper ridge axis associated with the warm air ahead of the front...the upper ridge is not amplified enough to prevent wind shear and thus tropical cyclone activity here is not expected.