MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #177
Updated: Nov 5, 2019
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY NOVEMBER 4 2019 9:06 AM EDT...
The cut-off upper vortex north of the Lesser Antilles continues producing thunderstorms with its eastern divergence zone. The surface trough of low pressure that was born in this activity a couple of days ago has moved westward toward the low pressure field of the latest surface cold front entering the western Atlantic...and is now located well north of the Dominican Republic while producing a new surface spin marked by a faint cloud swirl. This new surface low pressure spin is beneath unfavorable northerly shear and upper convergence on the west side of the upper vortex and southeast side of the upper ridge axis associated with the warm air ahead of the aforementioned front. Over the next couple of days the tail end of the front will merge with the surface low pressure area while becoming cut-off by the south side of the strong surface ridge about to emerge from the eastern United States...and as the upper ridge axis overspreads the surface low pressure area upper winds could become more favorable for tropical activity while supplying a lower shear and upper outflow environment. Waiting for the development of thunderstorms in such an environment before declaring an area of interest out of this surface low pressure system. However window of time for any tropical development will be short as after 72 hours the upper trough regime beginning to persist over North America will deliver a shortwave upper trough into the western Atlantic that will increase the unfavorable wind shear in the region.