*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2 2019 1:03 PM EDT...
See area of interest section below for an update on the disturbance along the Intertropical Convergence Zone that has moved into the central tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere...a well-forecast cut-off upper vortex has formed north of the Lesser Antilles...and its eastern divergence zone is producing a new surface trough northeast of the islands and also widespread bands of showers and thunderstorms. The recent ASCAT passes have largely missed the surface trough...so it is not known if a surface spin worth monitoring for tropical development has formed. Over the next few days...the upper vortex if forecast to drift southward and away from the surface trough while the warm western Atlantic upper ridging expands in warm air advection ahead of a series of fronts to approach from the west...and the surface trough itself will be re-enforced by the tail end of these fronts becoming cut-off to the south of strong surface ridges that eject from the southern US. Although the southward shift of the upper vortex may cause a burst of unfavorable northerly shear across the surface trough...unfavorable shear could reduce and favorable upper outflow increase as the western Atlantic upper ridge expands over the surface trough. Waiting to see if the surface trough develops a closed surface spin or how it manages the potential aforementioned burst of unfavorable shear before adding it as an area of interest for tropical development.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...The tropical wave along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the eastern tropical Atlantic has arrived to the central tropical Atlantic at 41W as of 1200Z today. The tropical wave has seen an increase in thunderstorms compared to yesterday while under the support of upper divergence from an upper ridge that remains overhead. The tropical wave only has 24 more hours under such conditions before it encounters increasing unfavorable shear imparted by the cut-off upper vortex north of the Lesser Antilles. However given its current disorganization this is not enough time for this tropical wave to develop...thus I have lowered my odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0%. Therefore this is my final statement on this tropical wave on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 3)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (tropical Atlantic near 9.5N-46W)