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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 26 2019 8:40 PM EDT...

The following is a special update on Hurricane Lorenzo which has continued to intensify...and reached 140 mph maximum sustained winds as of the 5 PM EDT National Hurricane Center advisory. Because the ongoing intensification...and indications from modeling earlier this morning that Lorenzo's extensive thunderstorm latent heat release will tend to keep upper vorticity and their unfavorable shear around the hurricane at bay...I am raising my intensity forecast from my previous update from earlier today. Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the progress of Lorenzo as the steering pattern favors a northeast turn towards the general direction of the islands just after 5 days.

****** forecast. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (0000Z Sep 27)...140 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 17N-41W

IOH 12 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 27)...150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 18.5N-41.5W

IOH 36 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 28)...150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 22.5N-41.5W

IOH 60 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 29)...135 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 27N-41W

IOH 84 Hr Forecast (1200Z Sep 30)...125 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 31N-40W

IOH 108 Hr Forecast (1200Z Oct 1)...105 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane transitioning to non-tropical centered southwest of the Azores at 35N-36W

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