COVID-19 | Info On Hurricanes

COVID-19 DATA PAGE

Last Updated 8/12/2020 9:50 AM EDT

...WARNINGS FOR UNITED STATES...

Due to the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak currently ongoing in many states within the United States, and lack of a unified message from government and media about how serious this disease is, I have categorized the states into different color "zones" depending on how severe the outbreak has been in recent days. This is based on studying the outbreak that hit Italy in March and April and at what points the medical system their reached capacity, and then became overwhelmed. Green and yellow zones represent a lower percent of the uninfected population becoming infected per day. Red represents hospitals reaching capacity, observed to occur in Italy when 0.004%+ of the uninfected population becomes infected per day. Purple represents hospitals becoming overloaded, observed to occur in Italy when 0.010%+ of the uninfected population becomes infected per day. These observations have seemed to hold true in other medical systems outside of Italy. See which color zone your state belongs to below, and take these recommendations and other recommendations and laws from your local and state governments seriously like we do for example during hurricanes or natural disasters. For instance a mandatory evaucation from a hurricane has not been a matter of politics or debate, but is a matter to protect your life and others around you, so why can't we treat COVID-19 the same way? This is not just a reguar flu or virus, we have already lost 140,000 lives in the United States in just a matter of months as of this writing. While the CDC estimates the 2019-2020 common flu season killed 24,000 to 62,000 which is also a lot, but still less than COVID-19, consider that this is in the backdrop of 39 to 56 million commmon flu cases which makes the common flu death rate less than 1% (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm). Now consider COVID-19 which kills a much higher percent of people that contract it espeicially when the medical system is overwhelmed, for instance the COVID-19 mortality (death) rate of Italy in the data shown on this page is around 14%. Therefore if the United States allows COVID-19 to spread around like the common flu, expect a death toll unlike anything we have seen in this nation's modern history. The recommendations for each state below may be different than what I presented on April 30, because since that time a lot state re-openings have failed with the citizens not taking this disease seriously and refusing to perform simple actions such as wearing a mask in public while congregating in large social gatherings.

COVID-19 Emergency (Purple)
Recent data shows a severe concentration of new cases per day in your state, it is likely your state’s medical system is or will become overloaded. Take the following precautions if they are not effect in your state to protect not your only your life, but other lives:
*Do not leave your residence unless it is absolutely necessary (if your job requires it or seeking medical attention for example)
*When going out in public, wear a face mask. Maintain a physical distance from one another. If eating or drinking in a public setting such that the face mask must be lowered, do so away from others. Recommend carry out from restaurants instead of dining in.
*Practice frequent hand sanitizing and washing. Have a holding area in your home to disinfect the packaging of purchased goods or mail, allow non-perishable items to sit in holding area for a day or two for bacteria to dissipate.
*Seek medical care for non-Covid or Covid related illnesses, but also practice healthy medical and dental habits to avoid needing the use of medical facilities as much as possible.
*Follow any state and local recommendations and laws related to Covid 19

ALABAMA
ARIZONA
ARKANSAS
CALIFORNIA
FLORIDA
GEORGIA
HAWAII
IDAHO
ILLINOIS
IOWA
KANSAS
KENTUCKY
LOUISIANA
MARYLAND
MINNESOTA
MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI
MONTANA
NEBRASKA
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO
NORTH CARLOLINA
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
OKLAHOMA
SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTH DAKOTA
TENNESSEE
TEXAS
UTAH
VIRGINIA
WISCONSIN

COVID-19 Warning (Red)

Recent data shows a high concentration of new cases per day in your state, it is likely your state’s medical system is reaching capacity. Take the following precautions if they are not effect in your state to protect not your only your life, but other lives:
*Do not leave your residence unless it is absolutely necessary (if your job requires it or seeking medical attention for example)
*When going out in public, wear a face mask. Maintain a physical distance from one another. If eating or drinking in a public setting such that the face mask must be lowered, do so away from others. Recommend carry out from restaurants instead of dining in.
*Practice frequent hand sanitizing and washing. Have a holding area in your home to disinfect the packaging of purchased goods or mail, allow non-perishable items to sit in holding area for a day or two for bacteria to dissipate.
*Follow any state and local recommendations and laws related to Covid 19

ALASKA
COLORADO
DELAWARE
INDIANA
MASSACHUSETTS
MICHIGAN
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
OREGON
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
WASHINGTON
WEST VIRGINIA
WYOMING

COVID-19 Watch (Orange):
Recent data shows a low or moderate concentration of new cases per day in your state, however there is insufficient testing activity (daily positive rate of tests exceeds 10% recommended by World Heatlh Organization) and the case load could actually be higher, resulting in an overload in your state’s medical system. Take the following precautions if they are not effect in your state:
*Try to reduce the number of times you leave your residence.
*When going out in public, wear a face mask. Maintain a physical distance from one another. If eating or drinking in a public setting such that the face mask must be lowered, do so away from others. Recommend carry out from restaurants instead of dining in.
*Practice frequent hand sanitizing and washing
*Follow any state and local recommendations and laws related to Covid 19
(NO STATES)

COVID-19 Advisory (Yellow):
Recent data shows a moderate concentration of new cases per day in your state. An increase from current levels could overload your state’s medical system, take the following precautions if they are not effect in your state:
*When going out in public, wear a face mask. Maintain a physical distance from one another. If eating or drinking in a public setting such that the face mask must be lowered, do so away from others. Recommend carry out from restaurants instead of dining in.
*Practice frequent hand sanitizing and washing
*Follow any state and local recommendations and laws related to Covid 19

CONNECTICUT
MAINE
NEW HAMPSHIRE
VERMONT

COVID-19 Proceed With Caution (Green):
Recent data shows a low concentration of new cases per day in your state. However because covid 19 is capable of spreading easily, the following precautions should be taken to prevent a new surge of cases:
*When going out in public, wear a face mask to keep disease transmission low. If eating or drinking in a public setting such that the face mask must be lowered, do so away from others, request to be seated away from others if in a restaurant for example.
*Practice frequent hand sanitizing and washing
*Follow any state and local recommendations and laws related to Covid 19
(NO STATES)

...PREVIOUS ARTICLES ON COVID-19 ON THIS WEBSITE...

April 14 2020:
COVID-19 DATA SHOWING GOVERNMENT ORDERS AND STAYING AT HOME IS CRUCIAL
https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/special-article-covid-19-data-showing-government-orders-and-staying-at-home-is-crucial

April 17 2020:
UPDATED COVID-19 OUTLOOK, DAILY CASES IN THE UNITED STATES REMAINS AT PLEATEAU
https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/special-article-updated-covid-19-outlook-daily-cases-in-the-united-states-remains-at-plateau

April 26 2020:
HOW MUCH COVID-19 TESTING NEEDED IN THE UNITED STATES TO SAFELY REOPEN?
https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/special-article-how-much-covid-19-testing-needed-in-the-united-states-to-safely-reopen

April 30 2020:
WHERE DOES THE USA STAND AFTER 100 DAYS SINCE THE NATION'S FIRST COVID-19 CASE?
https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/special-article-where-does-the-usa-stand-after-100-days-since-the-nation-s-first-covid-19-case

...WHAT AREAS I COLLECTED DATA FOR...

1) China, where COVID-19 originated

2) Italy, one of the first nations outside of China where the number of cases of COVID-19 increased rapidly

3) South Korea, where COVID-19 was quickly contained

4) Nations where I have family and friends, the United States, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt

5) Within the United States, the following states:
a) Michigan and North Carolina where I have family and friends
b) California, Washington, and New York which were the first states to have a rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.
c) West Virginia, the last state to report its first COVID-19 case
d) I expanded data collection to all states beginning April 17, 2020.

...SOURCES FOR DATA...

1) For global COVID-19 case count, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

2) For a state by state breakdown in the United States, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

3) For a county-level breakdown in Michigan, https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus

4) For a county-level breakdown in North Carolina, https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

5) New York state total and New York City total, https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-TableView?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

...CALCULATIONS TO NORMALIZE DATA....

Warning! Note that while the percentages described below have been of low numbers, it only has taken a very small percentage of the population getting infected to overwhelm the medical system, which forces hopsitals to make priorities as to who will or will not get COVID-19 treatments as well as other treatments for other serious diseases such as cancer. For example Italy on 3/11/2020 with only 0.021% of the national population infected with COVID-19 had hospitals reaching capacity (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/).

Comparing nations or regions (state, county, city, province, etc.) simply by looking at the total number of cases may not provide a fair comparison as larger population areas naturally will have a higher number of cases. Therefore I converted the data by dividing by population to give a normalizing percentage, for instance:

% infected, nation = (total cases nationwide/total population of nation)*100
% infected, state = (total cases statewide/total population of state)*100
% infected, county = (total cases countywide/total population of county)*100
% infected, city = (total cases citywide/total population of city)*100

I also did the a similar normalization for the number of new cases per day, in a metric I called "percent chance of getting infected." For example in a population of 100, if you are getting 1 new case each day that the percent chance of the remaining uninfected 99 getting infected is (1/99)*100 = 1.01%. On the next day when another 1 case happens the chance of the uninfected 98 getting infected becomes (1/98)*100 = 1.02%. Then lets say on the third day the population is now getting 3 new cases per day, so now 95 are uninfected and the chances go up to (3/95)*100 = 3.15%. As such I calculated:

Number of Uninfected = Total Population - Total Number of Cases
% chance of becoming infected = (New Cases Today/Number of Uninfected)*100

Although I think this metric is proportional to the likelihood of getting infected, the small resulting values should not be interpreted as literal or to minimize the seriousness of the situation, because this is based on the number of new confirmed cases, so if testing supplies in a region are not adequate or a large number of people with flu-like symptoms decide not to get themselves tested, then the true number of COVID-19 cases in reality is larger and this percentage could actually be higher than what has been calculated thus far. And if you venture to certain hospitals, streets, buildings, etc. where the virus is present or in high concentration, the chances of becoming infected go up and is likely higher than reflected by the calculation. Rather, I use this calculation to understand if the number of new cases per day is increasing, staying the same, or decreasing, and this metric is normalized by population to be able to compare one region with less population to another region with more population more fairly.

I calculate mortality rate as:

mortality rate % = (Total Deaths/Total Number of Cases)*100

And finally I calculate the daily positive test rate as:

% of daily tests positive = (New Cases Today/Total Tests Ran Today)*100

Some states or nations do not update the total number of tests ran each day. So if this value is updated every four days for example, a four-day average is calculated by summing the total number of new cases over the last four days, and dividing by the number of tests ran over the last four days.

...WORLDWIDE DATA...